Fox News poll: Obama 45, McCain 39, nine-point swing since convention

Hard to fault the sample on this one when the party split’s precisely the same as it was for their last poll. Needless to say, it’s the economy, stupid, although McCain appears to have done some damage to himself too based on this trend:

At 47/36, down from 54/27 after the convention, Palin’s net favorables are now the lowest of the four candidates. A separate poll coming from NBC tonight will supposedly show that only 40 percent think she’s qualified to be president versus 49 percent who think she isn’t, although a majority of Fox News respondents say they’re at least somewhat comfortable with her as VP. If you believe Gallup, contra the reports after the convention of massive swings toward McCain among white women, she hasn’t done much to earn him extra votes within that demographic.

Oh, here’s some more good news. Looks like race relations are headed for a downturn if The One loses:

The polls are almost uniformly bad today and in some cases brutal, but rather than bludgeon you with horrible news I’ll point you to one that’s merely provocative yet discouraging. Behold:

Yes, yes, I know, the left perennially (quadrennially?) whines that pollsters underestimate Democratic support because they’re stuck sampling landline voters, not the cell-phone-only generation that tends to skew left. Historically the complaint’s been overblown because pollsters compensate for the missing cell-phone sample by adding more weight to young voters. The problem with doing that this year, apparently, is that young cell-phoners lean more heavily towards Obama than young landliners do, which means the pollsters might not be weighting the latter enough. Follow the link to the Pew survey and focus on the second table. We’re talking about a 10-point spread, which doesn’t feel like much given how relatively few cell-phone-only voters there are but in a close election might be decisive. Assuming, that is, that The One can get them to turn out.

Exit question good news: Gallup is unchanged from yesterday, and NPR’s survey of 14 battleground states actually has McCain up by two, although that’s within the margin of error.