A 48/40 lead after the convention turns quickly to dust. Better still, the new poll was conducted from Monday to Wednesday, so her speech hasn’t fully impacted yet.

No crosstabs yet, but note well the trends in enthusiasm. Dude, I think she might be … The One.

McCain has also closed the enthusiasm gap some with Obama, but it still exists. Fifty-five percent of Obama’s supporters are enthusiastic about their choice, and now so are 35% of McCain’s. Last weekend, just 25 percent of McCain’s supporters were enthusiastic about him, compared to 67 of Obama’s supporters…

Independents in this poll are divided. In the poll conducted over the weekend, Obama had a six-point advantage with this group, but now the lead is three points, 39 percent to 36 percent.

The poll also shows that the majority of Clinton supporters continue to support Obama – 67 percent in this poll, up from 58 percent last weekend.

McCain has seen a similar uptick from white evangelicals since the weekend – 66 percent now, up from 57 percent.

The base solidifies, Hillary voters come home, and it’s a duel to the death for independents. I like these odds, as much as anyone constitutionally incapable of believing in victory can. (We’re still down seven in Gallup!) Kaus offers the Democrats some good advice on Palin going forward; read it and ponder while I go turn the dial of my pessimism meter up from level seven to level eight, i.e. resigned to heart-ache but now hoping for a smaller than expected margin of defeat. Exit question: When does the first creepy cultish poster of Palin emerge?