Open thread: Puerto Rico; Update: Hillary wins; Update: Exit poll shows 70/30 landslide? Update: Turnout low?

The polls close at 3 p.m. ET. The exits — which are already looking, shall we say, Chaotic — will be posted below as soon as they’re available. The only number anyone cares about is the popular vote, a point driven home by our gal’s latest (last?) ad. I heard somewhere this morning that two million people turned out for the last gubernatorial election; if that holds today, given that she’s probably going to lose Montana and South Dakota on Tuesday and trails in the overall popular vote by roughly 300,000 if you count Florida but not Michigan, she probably needs a margin of 20 points or so to really make things interesting. Fire away in the comments.

Update: The contest is called promptly at three. Now we wait.

Update: As promised, the exit poll. And suddenly, that 20-point win doesn’t look so far-fetched: CNN’s got it 70/30 for Her Majesty among both genders.

Update: A quick scan shows her winning virtually every demographic in every single category. 69/31 among college grads, an Obama staple. Another interesting one:


Note that 52% of voters were men. And the obligatory racial question. If memory serves of other exits, this is unusually high:


By comparison, Ohio — whose exit poll got lots of scrutiny for its racial data — showed only 20% admitting that race was an important factor.

Update: Looks like none of this might matter. NBC says total turnout may be just 400,000.

Update: The president of Puerto Rico’s senate is predicting turnout possibly of 500,000. If so, and the CNN projection holds, she’ll net 200,000 or so votes.