We’re almost three hours away, I believe, from the polls closing but some data’s already trickling in. The early signs — change over experience, 27% turnout among independents (63-34 for Obama, per Fox), no meaningful margin on the C-in-C question — bode ill. Megyn Kelly’s on now and says Hillary won women … by only two points, and unions … by only one point.
Standby for updates.
Update: All right, back by popular demand, here’s the Truther video that I originally posted. The boss’s complicity is alluded to near the end.
Update: Geraghty’s hearing 60-40(!) after two waves of exit poll data. How can that be if Hillary holds a 51-49 lead among women, who typically vote in greater numbers than men in Democratic primaries? Did men break 75-25 for Barry O?
Update: Coming soon: “It’s about picking a president who relies not just on words – but on work, hard work, to get America back to work. Someone who’s not just in the speeches business – but will get America back in the solutions business.”
Update: A “huge win.” Awful.
The party officials said that if the trends reflect in the interviews with hundreds of Badger State voters, the news out of the primary will be: Obama encroached deeply into three of Clinton’s core groups of voters — women, those with no college degree and those with lower incomes — while giving up none of his own. However, Clinton looked to be winning senior citizens, the officials said.
Update: Hillary supporters will be satisfied if Obama’s the nominee. Obama supporters if Hillary’s the nominee? Not so much.
Update: 9 p.m. Megyn Kelly says in fact it was Obama who edged Hillary by two points among women. Good lord.
Update: No surprise — McCain wins easily. Minor surprise — The Democratic race is too close to call for the moment, which means it wasn’t 60/40.
McCain wins even among talk radio listeners.
Update: Exit polls are out. 55-43, according to MSNBC. Obama wins men by 26 points and white men by 21 points, and white voters overall 53-46.
Update: Here we go. At 9:19, Fox calls it for the Messiah.
Update: Jay Cost, ever reluctant to bestow the big “M” on any candidate, seems ready to lay it on the Messiah:
These numbers tell the tale succinctly. Clinton suffered significant loses across many of her core constituencies. White women, Democrats, union workers, downscale voters, and white Catholics all drifted to Obama last night – some so much that Obama actually won them.
Is this a momentum effect? The word “momentum” has been tossed around way too much this cycle, which is funny because prior to tonight there has really been little evidence of momentum at all! So, what of last night? Are these bona fide expansions in his voting coalition, or was Wisconsin following the same pattern that the previous states had? It is hard to say…
My sense is that there is some kind of momentum effect going on here. That is, Obama’s victories – most recently last week in the Potomac Primary – contributed to last night’s victory, though he would have done very well if there had been no momentum. This is the first Democratic contest where I think a case like this can be made. Until last night the typical ebb-and-flow of each candidate’s demographic strengths could account for the actual results.
If this is momentum, Clinton should be very nervous.