Who's going to beat Rudy?

Follow me here. According to Marc Ambinder, McCain’s third-quarter data reveals that he’s bankrupt. Mitt’s spent $22 million more than Giuliani and raised $3 million less this quarter (if you exclude the loan he made to his own campaign), leaving him with only $9.2 million in cash on hand — compared to Giuliani’s $16.6 million. Fred ended up raising a shade more than $9 million and has $7 million on hand, decent numbers given the fact that he didn’t announce until the quarter was two-thirds over but not exactly a fearsome indicator of the power of the Fredheads unleashed. Now look at this, from Gallup:


Almost six weeks after his announcement, Fred’s actually down four points. McCain’s Iraq honeymoon is over and Mitt, despite a little uptick, is hovering at around the single-digit mark after having spent $52 million on the campaign. Even if he succeeds in winning over most of the Christian right, there’s not much they can do for him except push him up towards what looks to be Rudy’s 30% floor. As McCain flames out, Rudy’s going to pick up a fair share of his support, which should leave him at upwards of 40% and Fred the only obstacle in his path. Exit question one: Is this a two-man race now? Exit question two: Is Dobson going to come around on Fred if Rudy starts inching towards 50%? And exit question three: Who cares? Just look at this.