Charlie Cook: This is one of the most dramatic shifts in a generic congressional ballot I’ve ever seen

posted at 5:11 pm on December 6, 2013 by Jeff Dunetz

Although sales of “Green Eggs and Ham” spiked up, after the 16-day government shutdown in October, the numbers weren’t quite as good for the Republican Party  at least with the generic congressional ballot polls. According to a Huffington Post polling average, in mid-July the two parties were separated by a tiny two-tenths of a percent, but then came the shut down and what Charlie Cook, dean of political polling gurus called “one of the most dramatic shifts I’ve ever seen in 40 years of involvement in politics.”

 

Sure enough, the Democratic numbers in the generic ballot began to pull dramatically ahead, resembling a steep ascent up the side of a mountain, ending about 7 points ahead of Republicans, 45 percent to 38 percent—an advantage that, were it to last until the election, would give Democrats a chance to recapture the House.

Then, in mid-October, the focus shifted from the government-shutdown fiasco to a different debacle, this time a Democratic disaster: the botched launch of the Obamacare website and subsequent implementation problems of the health care law, including termination notices going out to many people who had insurance coverage. The Democratic numbers from the generic-ballot test dropped from 45 percent to 37 percent, and Republicans moved up to 40 percent. This 10-point net shift from a Democratic advantage of 7 points to a GOP edge of 3 points in just over a month is breathtaking, perhaps an unprecedented swing in such a short period. Occurring around Election Day, such a shift would probably amount to the difference between Democrats picking up at least 10 House seats, possibly even the 17 needed for a majority, and instead losing a half-dozen or so seats.

The shift may be a once in 40-years event for the generic congressional ballot, but not necessarily for all political polls. During the 2012 GOP primaries it was not uncommon to see a 20 percentage point shift from one candidate to another in the space of  a week or two.

Republican’s should not allow their present advantage in the generic ballot to spur them to purchase food and beer for a victory party, the 2014 mid-terms are a long time away and their is much that can happen.

Their latest advantage was not built on anything the GOP did, but on the failed Obamacare launch. Americans forgive and forget easily. However unlikely the scenario, should there be no more issues with the website and no more people losing the plans they were promised they could keep, the initial negative effect of the bad launch could wane.

On the other hand if there is another government shutdown (just as unlikely) the Republican numbers will crash.

Then there is the economy, the 3.6% growth rate in the GDP, and the 7% unemployment rate, both announced this week could be the start of the long-awaited economic recovery. Although an improving economy will produce a slower polling turn around than what we have seen as a result of each party’s blunder.

The most important thing these numbers reflect is that 2014 is a very winnable election for the Republican Party, but then again so was 2012.

 

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But…But…But…Bush?

Oil Can on December 6, 2013 at 5:11 PM

So the lesson from that chart is that the voters want Republicans in Congress, but will complain if they ever actually try to stop anything?

Gingotts on December 6, 2013 at 5:15 PM

No, the lesson is to never try to protect voters from what they voted for. They have to experience it for themselves.

ElectricPhase on December 6, 2013 at 5:18 PM

Give the mainstream GOP hacks half a chance and they’ll blow it on some piddling nonsense.

You can just about count on it.

(I pray that I am wrong.)

hillbillyjim on December 6, 2013 at 5:19 PM

Here’s the thing, I know of at least a dozen or so ‘Republican’s’ that will not be voting in 2014 if McConnell and Boehner don’t shape up. They won’t vote. Amnesty is/was the straw.

I predict dems win both houses in a landslide due to the conservative base not turning out.

Mr. Arrogant on December 6, 2013 at 5:20 PM

Just imagine if the Tea Party had focused on Obamacare instead of senselessly shutting down the government while bashing Republicans. The Tea Party = Code Pink of the right.

NoStoppingUs on December 6, 2013 at 5:22 PM

One has to very wary of an electorate so stupid and ill-informed that they actually think something as irrelevant and tiny as the GOVERNMENT SLIMDOWN (which had NO economic or other effect) must change their party preference.

TeaPartyNation on December 6, 2013 at 5:24 PM

these numbers reflect is that 2014 is a very winnable election for the Republican Party, but then again so was 2012.

Why does everyone say 2012 was winnable? Romney was not a winning candidate and only won the nomination because all the pundit class wanted him to and brainwashed people to think that he was the only republican that could win.

Stop voting for people that can “win.” They never do. Republicans will always flounder and lose when they attempt to be like democrats.

el hombre on December 6, 2013 at 5:24 PM

Jeff, never underestimate to grab a defeat out of the jaws of victory. If there is a way to mess up an election, they sure have the people in charge to do it. *Looking at Boehner, McConnell, Pribus*

simkeith on December 6, 2013 at 5:24 PM

I sure as hell hope the GOP understands that the shutdown was a disaster.

When you control only one of three legs of the legislative process, you’re not in a position to accomplish anything except slow down the train. When this battle resumes in January, the Dems are going to be praying for another shutdown. It’s their hope for 2014.

The GOP must take the Senate. Until then, keep cancelled insurance plans and high premiums and deductibles on page 1.

mankai on December 6, 2013 at 5:25 PM

Meh, the parties are the same/

thebrokenrattle on December 6, 2013 at 5:27 PM

Just imagine if the Tea Party had focused on Obamacare instead of senselessly shutting down the government while bashing Republicans. The Tea Party = Code Pink of the right.

NoStoppingUs on December 6, 2013 at 5:22 PM

You need to question the mainstream narrative about the Tea Party. They are in no way comparable to Code Pink, and the overwhelming majority are closer to the middle than you might think if you believe the hype.

Being sick of being shat upon by our elected officials does not make one a flake.

hillbillyjim on December 6, 2013 at 5:27 PM

The Tea Party = Code Pink of the right.

NoStoppingUs on December 6, 2013 at 5:22 PM

Yes dear, bless your heart.

Why does everyone say 2012 was winnable?
el hombre on December 6, 2013 at 5:24 PM

Wishful thinking. It showed that the US is at the tipping point. All the dems have to do is get a few well-to-do socialists to vote the same way as the leeches.

cozmo on December 6, 2013 at 5:28 PM

StoppingUs on December 6, 2013 at 5:22 PM

LOL Someone needs some attention.

Fallon on December 6, 2013 at 5:29 PM

It’s not the Tea Party that has hindered the people from getting some of our power back from the government. Rather, it is the career politicians of both colors that are the overwhelming problem, festering like a cancer on the economy and on the governmental process.

hillbillyjim on December 6, 2013 at 5:29 PM

That blue Koolaid goes down easy…

d1carter on December 6, 2013 at 5:31 PM

… the 2014 mid-terms are a long time away and their there is much that can happen.

Minor typo. Sorry, these things just jump out at me.

UltimateBob on December 6, 2013 at 5:31 PM

The most important thing these numbers reflect is that 2014 is a very winnable election for the Republican Party, but then again so was 2012.

Never underestimate the stupidness of the Stupid Party.

rbj on December 6, 2013 at 5:32 PM

It will regress to the mean in a few months. Now if we have millions of cancellations of employer based plans next October it will break the Republicans’ way just in time.

Ted Torgerson on December 6, 2013 at 5:33 PM

Just imagine if the Tea Party had focused on Obamacare instead of senselessly shutting down the government while bashing Republicans. The Tea Party = Code Pink of the right.

NoStoppingUs on December 6, 2013 at 5:22 PM

Either you are kidding or a complete moron.

Ted Cruz made the Dems own Obamacare completely on the very day it was launched. Those calls to delay or defund look pretty smart given the fact people can’t sign up but are able to get pre-natal care for their cocker spaniel.

So which is it? Kidder or moron?

Happy Nomad on December 6, 2013 at 5:33 PM

The most important thing these numbers reflect is that 2014 is a very winnable election for the Republican Party, but then again so was 2012.

Agreed!..:)

Dire Straits on December 6, 2013 at 5:35 PM

Since the rollout of Obamacare, support for Democrats has dropped much more than support for Republicans has increased. Republicans need to campaign that “give us control of the Senate, we will repeal Obamacare”, and not allow Democrats to change the subject to abortion or rape or gay marriage or immigration. Republicans can still campaign for reduced taxes and spending, as well as a more permissive energy policy (drill, baby, drill!!!) which would promote job growth and reduce energy costs for consumers.

Steve Z on December 6, 2013 at 5:35 PM

Actually an economic turn-around would cause unemployment to go up in the short term, not down. Basically, you’d see most of those individuals whom exited the labor force returning, and that’d push the unemploment numbers up, not down. About 6-8 months later, THEN, you’d see unemployment numbers heading back toward where they were before 08.

Regardless, this doesn’t match this pattern. For November, we’re probably just seeing a lot of re-hires after the shut-down, combined with part time Holiday work.

WolvenOne on December 6, 2013 at 5:37 PM

Just imagine if the Tea Party had focused on Obamacare instead of senselessly shutting down the government while bashing Republicans. The Tea Party = Code Pink of the right.

NoStoppingUs on December 6, 2013 at 5:22 PM

How do you post from another reality like that?

Axeman on December 6, 2013 at 5:37 PM

NoStoppingUs on December 6, 2013 at 5:22 PM <~ Troll. Do not feed.

ElectricPhase on December 6, 2013 at 5:37 PM

Their latest advantage was not built on anything the GOP did, but on the failed Obamacare launch. Americans forgive and forget easily. However unlikely the scenario, should there be no more issues with the website and no more people losing the plans they were promised they could keep, the initial negative effect of the bad launch could wane.

What was the shut down about? ObamaCare.

What the shutdown accomplished was show the people what Democrats supported and defended. In fact they defended it so much they were willing to shut the government down and play with the debit limit. Same with the GOP. They were willing to stop the law even if it hurt them politically. What was the Democrat message during that time…Republicans are trying stop ObamaCare!

So the Republicans suffered a tactical defeat, but it was a major strategic victory. Why? Because people are now seeing the Republicans were right and that they were trying to stop something that would hurt the people. They failed, but they tried. Obama and the Dems struggled and battled Republicans for a law that would hurt the people.

History will look back at the shut down as a last ditch and brave attempt to protect the people from harm. That it was noble. Now the best strategy is to let the whole debacle play out. No need to shut the government down again because the GOP already proved it tried to stop the debacle and the people know it. This is going to be a long drawn out tragedy for the Democrats, every month producing some new horror…don’t try to save the “hero”…let him fall and get the last lines in the play foretelling of a new day.

Like I said the shutdown was the Battle of Borodino for the GOP playing the role of the Russians. Napoleon, like Obama, won, but what he won was a nightmare. For Obama and the Dems, ObamaCare is the retreat from Moscow in a Russian winter. Long, ugly and painful…what a waste of a political majority.

William Eaton on December 6, 2013 at 5:39 PM

Their latest advantage was not built on anything the GOP did, but on the failed Obamacare launch.

Uhhh…except for Ted Cruze/Mike Lee///oh that!!! Much pilloried here at RINO air

winston on December 6, 2013 at 5:45 PM

What’s this? We’re relying on polling data to project an election that is eleven months away? Didn’t we try that last year within days of an election, and do you remember how well that worked out for us? How about stuffing it where the sun don’t shine.

HiJack on December 6, 2013 at 5:45 PM

Then there is the economy, the 3.6% growth rate in the GDP, and the 7% unemployment rate

I don’t believe either of those numbers. The books are cooked, and later “adjustments” will be made when they can no longer cover it up.

iurockhead on December 6, 2013 at 5:51 PM

Republicans will always flounder and lose when they attempt to be like democrats.

el hombre on December 6, 2013 at 5:24 PM

Not so. If Republicans were like Democrats, they would be winning more elections. Republicans cannot stand the idea of winning anymore. They proved that with McCain and Romney.

timberline on December 6, 2013 at 5:51 PM

Just imagine if the Tea Party had focused on Obamacare instead of senselessly shutting down the government while bashing Republicans. The Tea Party = Code Pink of the right.

NoStoppingUs on December 6, 2013 at 5:22 PM

You get all your news from msnbc, don’t you?

Solaratov on December 6, 2013 at 5:51 PM

Exactly, everyone knows that the Republican fight in October was over Obamacare. Everyone knows that Obama shut the government down rather than give in on Obamacare. Everyone knows that Obama ended up having to do what the Republicans wanted to do anyway.

One of the Resist We Much cartoon showed this perfectly. I’ll see if I can find it.

blink on December 6, 2013 at 5:45 PM

Unfortunately, many do not know that. LIV’s. Republicans need to do more to MAKE that known.

iurockhead on December 6, 2013 at 5:53 PM

Just imagine if the Tea Party had focused on Obamacare instead of senselessly shutting down the government while bashing Republicans. The Tea Party = Code Pink of the right.

NoStoppingUs on December 6, 2013 at 5:22 PM

Um, I know the media fought to block the word from getting out, but you do remember that the shutdown occurred bcause Obama and the Democrats refused to delay the Obamacare individual mandate for a year.

This was only a month or so ago.

Think back.

Ted Cruz’s marathon speech against Obamacare?

All the Republicans asked was to delay the individual mandate 1 year but the Ds wouldn’t do it.

talkingpoints on December 6, 2013 at 5:55 PM

One of the Resist We Much cartoon showed this perfectly. I’ll see if I can find it.

blink on December 6, 2013 at 5:45 PM

‘Toons of the Day: So Totally Screwed

:-)

Resist We Much on December 6, 2013 at 5:55 PM

Give no help to Obamacare or Obama’s policies.

As it pulls in those falling under the Employer Mandate it will start to hit every household with what only the self-insured got this year. Force these idiots to tell us why this horror is better than the status quo pre-Obamacare where 87% liked their insurance plans. Let them explain their lies, and things will continue on imploding.

Offer NOTHING as an alternative to Obamacare EXCEPT the status quo: give no ammunition to those who would want to compare and contrast Obamacare to a ‘proposal’. And as Obamacare pulls in Medicaid and Medicare into the vortex, ask the public if they really like government having ANYTHING to do with their healthcare? Ask them if they LIKE having bureaucrats question their doctor’s orders and prescriptions? Ask them if they like the fact that government is using these programs to cost-shift care from those who use those programs to those who can’t pay for them, as they are deeply in the red and were deeply in the red pre-Obamacare.

Use Obamacare as an example against those wanting ‘single payer’ and ask them why anyone would trust government to do this? Ask them what the problems of a monospony are and how they propose to avoid them. Ask them why bureaucrats should be able to over-ride the orders of doctors and their prescriptions. Ask them why they think the choices of unelected and unaccountable bureaucrats are better than a free individual’s own choices. Ask them why they hate liberty. Ask them why they hate life. And ask them why, in saying they want some to pursue happiness they bring misery to ALL.

There is nothing so good about Obamacare it is worth helping.

There is nothing so good about the system before it that it would be sustainable with the government running any part of health care by corrupting and impeding the underlying system of doctors seeing patients. The idea of costly treatments is NOT to put government death panels in charge of killing people, but to let people figure out how to pay such prices if, indeed without the overhead and costs of government ‘help’, it would continue to BE all that expensive.

Before the government ‘help’ no one died in the streets and payments were worked out between individuals, doctors and hospitals.

Government ‘help’ has destroyed one of the best and deepest charitable medical system the world has ever had.

We used to care for the poor via charity and voluntary contribution.

Not by extortion through taxes and cost shifting it to those unable to pay when young and healthy.

ajacksonian on December 6, 2013 at 5:56 PM

Wait for it…

“Washington Redskins! Gay marriage! Trayvon! War on women!”

MidniteRambler on December 6, 2013 at 6:00 PM

Just imagine if the Tea Party had focused on Obamacare instead of senselessly shutting down the government while bashing Republicans. The Tea Party = Code Pink of the right.

NoStoppingUs on December 6, 2013 at 5:22 PM

GFY liar.

dmacleo on December 6, 2013 at 6:02 PM

Just imagine if the Tea Party had focused on Obamacare instead of senselessly shutting down the government . . .

NoStoppingUs on December 6, 2013 at 5:22 PM

The focus of the shutdown was Zerokare moron. You’ll never see this but the american people are, will and forever understand . Now, go back to favorite pastime, trashing stars on the runway.

rik on December 6, 2013 at 6:02 PM

What is not completely understood yet is that Obamacare will forever change the publics perception on big government solutions. The only people left who align themselves with the D’s are the committed Leftist, of which there are less than 1/3rd of the country.

Tater Salad on December 6, 2013 at 6:12 PM

On the other hand if there is another government shutdown (just as unlikely) the Republican numbers will crash.


Pelosi: Dems Might Just Shut Down Government If Unemployment Benefits Aren’t Extended As Part of Budget Deal…

Resist We Much on December 6, 2013 at 6:16 PM

The shift may be a once in 40-years event for the generic congressional ballot…

… but is certainly one the GOP means to destroy on their own, by pushing amnesty.

The GOP is *not* going to have a good year in ’14, guys. Get used to it.

Obama’s not going to let Obamacare destroy the Dems, and the GOP will destroy themselves, so…

Midas on December 6, 2013 at 6:17 PM

On the other hand if there is another government shutdown (just as unlikely) the Republican numbers will crash.

Pelosi: Dems Might Just Shut Down Government If Unemployment Benefits Aren’t Extended As Part of Budget Deal…

Resist We Much on December 6, 2013 at 6:16 PM

But we know who will be blamed, don’t we? Yes, yes we do – and it won’t be Pelosi and the Dems.

Midas on December 6, 2013 at 6:18 PM

The polls go down. The polls go up. The polls go down again. The polls will go up again.

Meanwhile, in this year as in every year since 1965, America admits roughly a million legal new citizens, 90% non-white which means 80% Democrat-voting, forever.

And not only does the Republican Party not strive to plug the dike, it connives at amnesty.

David Blue on December 6, 2013 at 6:19 PM

Harry Reid’s Premiums Increase By $4,500

‘Under the health care law, EVERYBODY WILL HAVE LOWER RATES’, better quality care and better access.’

- Nancy Pelosi, ‘Meet the Press’, 1 July 2012

lolz

Resist We Much on December 6, 2013 at 6:21 PM

Charlie Cook: This is one of the most dramatic shifts in a generic congressional ballot I’ve ever seen

There’s nothing here for the GOP to get excited about.

It’s more a case of Vikings football: barely winning by being dreadfully bad but not as dreadfully bad as the other other guys.

Bruno Strozek on December 6, 2013 at 6:24 PM

Harry Reid’s Premiums Increase By $4,500

‘Under the health care law, EVERYBODY WILL HAVE LOWER RATES’, better quality care and better access.’

– Nancy Pelosi, ‘Meet the Press’, 1 July 2012

lolz

Resist We Much on December 6, 2013 at 6:21 PM

If I thought *he* would actually have to pay that, I’d laugh too.

Midas on December 6, 2013 at 6:25 PM

The Tea Party = Code Pink of the right.

NoStoppingUs on December 6, 2013 at 5:22 PM

where’s Del?

I give this guy a FU-

DanMan on December 6, 2013 at 6:25 PM

Then there is the economy, the 3.6% growth rate in the GDP, and the 7% unemployment rate, both announced this week could be the start of the long-awaited economic recovery.

Coming soon to a town near you ……………

The Obamacare Monster That Devoured the Economic Recovery.

fogw on December 6, 2013 at 6:27 PM

Sleazy Eric Holder immediately vowed to cook more ballot boxes.

viking01 on December 6, 2013 at 6:27 PM

On the other hand if there is another government shutdown (just as unlikely) the Republican numbers will crash.

so this Jeff fellow is a Mitch McConnell acolyte?

The worst suggestion you can make to fiscal hawks is to stand down in the middle of a fiscal battle pal. That shutdown was BS and if you don’t know that then I hope you’re freezing your ass off in New York right now. If our republican betters think its time to go into a shell then they will remain in the minority.

What we need is real conservative leadership. What we have is poofters reading pundits like this and being afraid to engage.

DanMan on December 6, 2013 at 6:30 PM

Just imagine if the Tea Party had focused on Obamacare instead of senselessly shutting down the government while bashing Republicans. The Tea Party = Code Pink of the right.

NoStoppingUs on December 6, 2013 at 5:22 PM

You need to question the mainstream narrative about the Tea Party. They are in no way comparable to Code Pink, and the overwhelming majority are closer to the middle than you might think if you believe the hype.

Being sick of being shat upon by our elected officials does not make one a flake.

hillbillyjim on December 6, 2013 at 5:27 PM

NoStoppingUs is a concern troll, nothing more. Don’t worry about what it says. It’s only trying to stir the pot and irritate conservatives.

njrob on December 6, 2013 at 6:32 PM

The shutdown was a momentary thing, BarryCare will be forever, until it is repealed.
When tens of millions of families start receiving notice of their job-provided policies being cancelled, all Hell will break loose –
It will make the “street scene” of Rostenkowski being chased by a bunch of seniors over the Catastrophic Care Act of 1988 look like a Sunday Picnic.

Another Drew on December 6, 2013 at 6:32 PM

I’ve got Barry to irritate me, I don’t need anyone else.

Another Drew on December 6, 2013 at 6:33 PM

What I notice is that the republicans didn’t lose any support during the democrat government shutdown even with nonstop media bashing. What happened was the democrats gained some but then blew it all once Obama Care the cACA bill came into force and his inept regime was exposed. I don’t think the democrat shutdown hurt the GOP nor do I think that the donks would be lower than they are now because we are nearing their base numbers.

I’m now super smart consultant just a MSME and to me if the republican elites go to war with their base the donks take back the HOR. If they don’t we take the senate by a 5-7 seat majority Obama Care ain’t going to get any better but the GOP elites could just piss off enough of their base to screw the pooch.

jukin3 on December 6, 2013 at 6:38 PM

Do shifts like this really mean that there are a large number of fickle and un-committed morons out there that actually flip flop their support so rapidly between two entire parties based on the issue of the week?

justltl on December 6, 2013 at 6:43 PM

… the 2014 mid-terms are a long time away and their there is much that can happen.

Minor typo. Sorry, these things just jump out at me.

UltimateBob on December 6, 2013 at 5:31 PM

Lol…I know. I just read, in ONE article, whirl wind and laughing stock.

Spellcheck is NOT Editcheck!

herm2416 on December 6, 2013 at 6:45 PM

jukin3 on December 6, 2013 at 6:38 PM

sometimes it seems like they just want to go to the party to hang out with the cool kids doesn’t it? Even if the cool kids push ‘em in the pool with their clothes on, they still get to say they were there and had a good time

DanMan on December 6, 2013 at 6:51 PM

What difference does it make? Honestly. Republicans are useless and two-faced. More Republicans just means more uselessness and betrayal. The Left absolutely thrives in minority status. We suck in majority status. So what’s the point? Until we find an actual leader, it’s meaningless.

rrpjr on December 6, 2013 at 6:56 PM

Now, where are the hotair morons that claimed Ted Cruz destroyed republicans polling numbers?

I know analysis may not be your greatest trait, but where does the polling inflection seem to begin?

Vanbasten on December 6, 2013 at 7:02 PM

I’ll say it again, repubs will find a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory if they run a bunch of new earthers.

Bandit13 on December 6, 2013 at 7:15 PM

But…But…But…Bush?

Oil Can on December 6, 2013 at 5:11 PM

I think that now only works on the liberal die-hards.

CWchangedhisNicagain on December 6, 2013 at 7:19 PM

DanMan on December 6, 2013 at 6:25 PM

Don’t waste your time.

This particular lizard has quietly slipped away; fear not, he/she/it will reappear with a new ‘handle’ (maybe) after a short intermission.

It’s ‘talking point’ wasn’t very well thought out…

…I suspect the Think Progress/DNC fueled trolls are still trying to find their feet amongst the flaming wreckage known as Obozocare.

BTW, I predict the cooked econ numbers will barely last 2 news cycles…

…the ‘rats demand for an extension of Unemployment benefits shows the truth of things.

CPT. Charles on December 6, 2013 at 7:19 PM

What difference does it make? Honestly. Republicans are useless and two-faced.

Politicians are nothing more than a reflection of the electorate. Please educate me if that is incorrect.

Bandit13 on December 6, 2013 at 7:21 PM

CWchangedhisNicagain on December 6, 2013 at 7:19 PM

Maybe… it’s rapidly turning into a common joke-line.

Anywho, those zombies would charge a quad-50-cal with butter knives if Dear Leader waved his hand in the right direction.

(His Divine Light will protect them…)

CPT. Charles on December 6, 2013 at 7:24 PM

How is this possible when the Republican Party died in 2008?

ButterflyDragon on December 6, 2013 at 7:34 PM

On the other hand if there is another government shutdown (just as unlikely) the Republican numbers will crash.

With folks like you constantly setting the “it will be republican’s fault” narrative, is it any wonder they get the blame?

xblade on December 6, 2013 at 7:55 PM

I will guarantee that if the GOP passes amnesty… it will be all over for them.

stenwin77 on December 6, 2013 at 7:55 PM

Politicians are nothing more than a reflection of the electorate. Please educate me if that is incorrect.

Bandit13 on December 6, 2013 at 7:21 PM

To a degree that’s always true. At the same time, extraordinary leaders distinct from the electorate come along. How do we explain those? In any case, the Republican party is useless beyond any comparison to the Republican electorate they’re alleged to represent.

rrpjr on December 6, 2013 at 7:59 PM

I will guarantee that if the GOP passes amnesty… it will be all over for them.

stenwin77 on December 6, 2013 at 7:55 PM

Obama’s declining ratings are actually inspiring the Republicans to pass amnesty. That’s how utterly sick these people are. Rather than seeing his weakness as leverage to rescind or cripple the things he wants and has forced down our throat, they’re empowered by it to force more things that he wants down our throats.

rrpjr on December 6, 2013 at 8:02 PM

One has to very wary of an electorate so stupid and ill-informed that they actually think something as irrelevant and tiny as the GOVERNMENT SLIMDOWN (which had NO economic or other effect) must change their party preference.
TeaPartyNation on December 6, 2013 at 5:24 PM

There’s the key. The electorate is so unaware and detached from reality that it’s become politically bipolar, subject to shifting waves on a daily and weekly basis for the most superficial reasons. At this point sentiment is subject either to the dumb luck of timing or to the ministrations of the media on behalf of the Democrats. Heck of a thing to try to base a political system on.

paul1149 on December 6, 2013 at 9:10 PM

Let’s see if Cruz & Co. will push for another shutdown and get those numbers turned around again.

ncconservative on December 6, 2013 at 11:01 PM

Thanks to the shutdown, EVERY voter in the USA knows the GOP hates obamacare, tried to stop it and wants to get rid of it. How is that a bad thing?

Jack_Burton on December 7, 2013 at 12:38 AM

As to the economy:

The Real US Unemployment Rate: 11.5%
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-12-06/real-us-unemployment-rate-115

In the meantime, House Republicans will blow it, by moving forward with comprehensive immigration reform with a pathway to citizenship … for which they have no electoral mandate.

john.frank on December 7, 2013 at 3:52 AM

There is no lesson in the numbers. It’s a tiny snapshot of a tiny window that drives the point that Nervious Nellies make repeatedly. They don’t like the shutdown and say so repeatedly with whatever statistic they can dig out to justify not attacking. They want to chose their battles carefully like old men with limited energy while their opponents fight every single battle to the death while dreaming up new ones. The shutdown made big abusive government look bad. It forced bad and careless and rash decisions. It threw people off guard. It is good all around and this observer looks forward to more.

bour3 on December 7, 2013 at 4:02 AM

However unlikely the scenario, should there be no more issues with the website and no more people losing the plans they were promised they could keep, the initial negative effect of the bad launch could wane.

No more people losing the plans they were promised they could keep?? Are you kidding?? I can’t believe you could type this! Wait until the employer mandate goes into effect and as many as 50 million employed people lose their plans and get dumped on the exchanges. Don’t you follow this stuff?

Dollayo on December 7, 2013 at 5:13 AM

Just imagine if the Tea Party had focused on Obamacare instead of senselessly shutting down the government while bashing Republicans. The Tea Party = Code Pink of the right.

NoStoppingUs on December 6, 2013 at 5:22 PM

NoStoppingUs = democrat in republican clothing, i.e. troll.

zoyclem on December 7, 2013 at 7:16 AM

The GOP establishment has gone too far.The alienation of many in the conservative base is palpable.I agree-the Dems win both Houses in 2014 as many disaffected conservatives flip off the GOP!

redware on December 7, 2013 at 8:28 AM

Let’s see if Cruz & Co. will push for another shutdown and get those numbers turned around again.

ncconservative on December 6, 2013 at 11:01 PM

If you bothered to read the thread instead of dropping a random troll comment, you would see why you’re wrong.

Doomberg on December 7, 2013 at 9:19 AM

Base problem – Voter fraud. Rs must be ready for all sorts: voting for dead people, double voting, holding up votes of soldiers, vacant lot addresses.

2014 MAY be winnable but that assumes honest elections. Based on my experience, Rs naively think honest elections still exist.

MN J on December 7, 2013 at 11:30 AM

The Tea Party = Code Pink of the right.

NoStoppingUs on December 6, 2013 at 5:22 PM

A grotesque statement. You’ve lost all credibility so I suggest get lost or change your name.

rrpjr on December 7, 2013 at 11:36 AM

… but is certainly one the GOP means to destroy on their own, by pushing amnesty.

The GOP is *not* going to have a good year in ’14, guys. Get used to it.

Obama’s not going to let Obamacare destroy the Dems, and the GOP will destroy themselves, so…

Midas on December 6, 2013 at 6:17 PM

Exactly…

GOP leadership is hell bent on making the party “more progressive” and immigration reform is the means. They believe they can gain more than they lose by pushing it down our throats.

But this is one long-time Republican who will become an Independent if immigration reform is passed. I don’t think I’m the only one.

DrDeano on December 7, 2013 at 12:13 PM

Their latest advantage was not built on anything the GOP did, but on the failed Obamacare launch.

Uhhh…except for Ted Cruze/Mike Lee///oh that!!! Much pilloried here at RINO air

winston on December 6, 2013 at 5:45 PM

I know. And the economy is suddenly beginning to recover just in time for illegals to get amnesty. After all those times that we were told people were being dropped out of the denominator and not actually employed in order to lower the number. And after the scandal of the census bureau playing games with the UE number in 2012 right before the election. And a crappy black Friday to boot. But yeah, don’t worry about the economy anymore. Suddenly, we all trust the numbers.

And I would like to see Ted Cruz’s or the Tea Party’s numbers for the same period of time. The Tea Party has done all the fighting when it comes to Obamacare and they have taken all the flak. The “Republicans” are no better than the Democrats. Who was peeing themselves more over the Government shutdown (or blasting the Tea Party) John McCain, Peter King and Karl Rove or the Democrats? They never fight they would have compromised us into the same damn place we are today if the Tea Party hadn’t been on the scene in 2010 to raise hell.

My theory that the Republican numbers aren’t going up as much as they went down is that only half of the Republicans really tried to stop it. The Government shutdown effected, exactly, who outside of the beltway? Tourists. And that behavior was hurting Obama because he was putting up Barry-cades to open air memorials and trying to stop Americans from even enjoying the view of Mt Rushmore.

magicbeans on December 7, 2013 at 2:56 PM

“Just imagine if the Tea Party had focused on Obamacare instead of senselessly shutting down the government while bashing Republicans. The Tea Party = Code Pink of the right.”

NoStoppingUs on December 6, 2013 at 5:22 PM
What do you think the purpose of the shutdown was? To try an inform the stupid people who voted for Obama that this was so disastrous that they were going to be very sorry once it gets implemented. The shutdown gang offered to negotiate with Obama but he and the Dems refused. Who looks bad now?

inspectorudy on December 9, 2013 at 7:34 PM