Cillizza: it's too late to draft anyone but Hillary now

Some people are just wet blankets who want to take the fun out of everything. One such Debby Downer is the Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza who thinks we’re all getting a bit too carried away with talk of Democrat voters feeling the Bern or waiting for the Second Coming of Joe. You see, here we are in August of 2015, nearly six months from when the first vote will be cast in Iowa and well over a year away from the actual election, but it’s far too late for anyone to replace Hillary. No, my friends, the die has been cast.

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Dear Democrats: It’s too late to start over.

As in, there’s no replacing Hillary Rodham Clinton as your party’s front-runner for the presidential nomination. Not with Vice President Biden — even if he runs. Not with former vice president Al Gore. (I mean, come on.) Not with your ideal rich-person-with-no-record-and-a-fresh-faced-appeal…

The simple fact is that getting into a presidential race this late — and, yes, August before the election year is very late — has a disastrous recent history. Then-Texas Gov. Rick Perry (R) entered the 2012 race in August 2011 and within three months had become irrelevant. Former senator Fred Thompson of Tennessee got into the 2008 Republican race late — and never went anywhere. Ditto Wes Clark in the 2004 Democratic nomination contest.

What all of those failed candidacies have in common is that their best day — at least in terms of polling — was their first day. It was all downhill from there.

In general terms I agree that the starting line for the presidential race track has been moving further and further back in the last two decades, much to the dismay of some of us. And given the complexity of organizing and sustaining a fifty state operation (or any significant subset thereof) you do need to get off to an early start and outorganize your opponents. But we’re talking about Joe Biden here. The man has run for president roughly one hundred times already (or at least it seems that way) and he’s the sitting Vice President. If he issues the call to arms I’m willing to bet that a fair number of politicos would answer. And honestly, that number could be a lot higher than it otherwise might considering how nervous Hillary is making everyone. I suspect that there are more than a few who would have already jumped ship if it weren’t for the fact that the only other rowboats surrounding her don’t look very seaworthy.

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Ditto for the big donors. Yes, Hillary has had them lined up like ducks in a row since at least last year and they’ve done quite well by her. But nobody is interested in dumping cash down a rat hole and if it looks like Hillary’s upcoming play dates with both Congress and the FBI may tank their investment, Biden would start looking more and more appealing as a place to park their cash.

Also, were Biden to officially get into the race it would suddenly make the early state primaries a lot more interesting. He’s polling above ten percent in some places without even giving a hint that he’s interested, and those numbers would no doubt get a big boost if he announced. Add into the mix the fact that Bernie Sanders isn’t going anywhere and you have ripe conditions in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina for somebody being able to walk away with one in the W column with barely 30 percent support. It’s not as fractured as the GOP field, but remember… a 30% bar for victory suddenly makes Bernie Sanders look a lot more appealing. Bear with me for a minute here. Who is going to be jumping ship to support Biden? Would it be the Sanders supporters who think that Hillary already looks too much like the status quo or Hillary’s crowd? I’d be willing to bet that Uncle Joe wouldn’t put a dent in Bernie’s numbers and he would drain from Hillary’s pool almost exclusively.

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And here I thought the GOP was having a drama filled year. Perhaps the Democrats will live to see interesting times after all.

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