Doubt cuts both ways. Instead of a story about how the Republicans tried to muscle a would-be rapist onto the court, we’ll hear about how a pillar of Republican jurisprudence was denied his seat because of scurrilously false allegations dating from when he was in high school, and that he was effectively convicted without ever being allowed to confront his accuser and clear his name. There’s a reason Ford herself was reluctant to come forward publicly, and the ferocious storm of abuse that will come her way if Kavanaugh’s nomination is derailed is precisely the reason why.

To be clear: Nobody is owed a Supreme Court seat, and plenty of political aspirants have seen their chances dashed on smaller rocks. Douglas Ginsburg had to withdraw his nomination for using recreational marijuana, after all. But if the Republican base becomes convinced that Kavanaugh is completely innocent, and that his case is comparable to the Duke Lacrosse players or the fictitious gang rape at the University of Virginia reported in Rolling Stone, that could motivate them powerfully to go to the polls.

Moreover, the electoral salience of the Supreme Court would rise enormously if Kavanaugh dropped out or was rejected and his replacement nominee had not yet been confirmed.