While Maureen Dowd indulges herself in bashing Sarah Palin, Matthew Dowd (no relation) says that predictions of her political demise are highly premature.  George W. Bush’s strategist was a Palin skeptic during the campaign, but says the media have been too quick to write her off for the next presidential cycle.   In today’s Washington Post, Dowd lays out how Palin can win the nomination — and possibly the White House:

First, Gallup polls over the past 60 years show that no president with an approval rating under 47 percent has won reelection, and no president with an approval rating above 51 percent has lost reelection. (George W. Bush’s approval rating in the weeks before the 2004 election hovered around 50 percent.) The 2012 election will be primarily about our current president and whether voters are satisfied with the country’s direction.

Who the Republican candidate is, and his or her qualifications and abilities, will matter only if Obama’s approval rating is between 47 and 51 percent going into the fall of 2012. Interestingly, in the latest Gallup poll Obama’s approval rating was at a precarious 49 percent.

Second, America is still (unfortunately) politically divided and polarized, and Palin benefits from this dynamic. While Democrats love Obama, Republicans look on him with real disfavor. The gap between Obama’s approval rating among Democrats and among Republicans is nearly 70 percentage points — a higher partisan divide than either Bill Clinton or George W. Bush experienced. Obama’s agenda and actions this year, and some mistakes, have solidified this divide.

Polls show that Palin’s favorability numbers are a mirror image of those of Obama. She is respected and loved by the Republican base, while Democrats despise her. Granted, independent voters have significant reservations about her capability to be president, and this would be a hurdle in the general election. But to win the Republican nomination, Palin needs only to get enough support from the base to win early key states. Already, in nearly every poll today, she has a level of support that makes her a viable primary candidate. Just look at the crowds and the buzz her book tour is drawing.

What makes this more interesting is that Dowd says he would likely oppose Palin in the primaries, but doesn’t get hysterical about her.  Instead, Dowd lays out a fairly compelling case that the Republican nominee may be more or less irrelevant in 2012.  What will be relevant is Barack Obama.  If his approval ratings continue to slide, he won’t get re-elected anyway.  If they improve by 2012, he’s unlikely to lose a national election.  When a President stands for re-election, the voters either approve the first term or end the Presidency.

But Dowd and others miss the point a bit, too.  The 2012 elections are still three years away, and even the heavy lifting for the nomination won’t begin for at least 14 months.  The key is the midterm elections and how the 2012 hopefuls play in the field. How will Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Palin, Tim Pawlenty, and others work to get Republicans elected to Congress?  Who will they endorse, who will they avoid, and which districts will they work?  After the election, we will have plenty of data on reach, depth, and the rest.

In fact, it would be a good idea for Republicans to stop getting distracted by 2012 altogether.  But at least we can follow Matthew Dowd’s lead and keep all options open for the meantime.  We also need to keep focused on the referendum quality of both the 2010 and 2012 elections, because that is what will ultimately drive success or failure.