There are three rumors competing for “rumor of the day” this morning, actually, but the one about the FSB official is the newsiest.

I’m skeptical that it’s true, yet there *are* signs recently that Putin understands that the campaign in Ukraine isn’t going well for him. The calendar alone would have punctured any bubble of denial he might be in, as the Kremlin reportedly thought it would knock over Kiev within three days of invading. But there are other clues. The surprising admission that conscripts had been sent to fight, the multiple reports of shocking Russian losses, and the sudden turn towards Syrian mercenaries to reinforce the Russian army all point towards Putin and his deputies scrambling to salvage a war which they realize has gone sideways.

Go figure that the search for scapegoats might be under way.

Putin appears to be truly unhappy with the FSB in Ukraine: he attacked the 5 Service SOiMS (FSB's foreign Intelligence branch). Sergei Beseda, head of the Service, and his deputy Bolukh, head of the DOI, placed under house arrest, according to my sources inside.

— Andrei Soldatov (@AndreiSoldatov) March 11, 2022

If confirmed, this will be really major news. Beseda and Bolukh are as high as it gets. Beseda was literally in charge of Ukraine intel (= guy who would have misled Putin on Ukraine's readiness to "welcome liberators"). Bolukh additionally in charge of disinformation. https://t.co/GBY0vFVI5P

— Christo Grozev (@christogrozev) March 11, 2022

I shouldn’t call Beseda a “scapegoat” since that term implies placing blame on someone who’s done nothing to deserve it. There clearly was a catastrophic intelligence breakdown that led the Kremlin to believe Ukrainians wouldn’t resist or, if they did, that they’d be pushovers. Russia being Russia, the likeliest explanation for that breakdown is that the money earmarked for intel operations went into buying mansions for Beseda and his deputies instead. A former British intel official told one UK paper that Putin would naturally fault the FSB “for seeding him the advice that led to the poor decision-making in Ukraine.”

So maybe the purges have begun. Stay tuned.

The second rumor that’s percolating involves another major battlefield loss for Russia:

Western officials confirm a third Russian major general has been killed in fighting in Ukraine

— Larisa Brown (@larisamlbrown) March 11, 2022

Ukraine’s authorities say MG Andrey Kolesnikov, Russia’s 29th Combined Arms Army commander has been killed.
This is yet to be confirmed!
Big if true — the elimination of military leaders on the ground gets really catastrophic for Russia. pic.twitter.com/z3keCC7CEP

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) March 11, 2022

Again, it’s not simply the rank of officers killer but also the quantity. Russian officer casualties are shockingly high. Big indicator of huge communication problems forcing senior officers closer to the frontline to stay in contact https://t.co/o13T99PSdj

— Andrew S. Bowen (@Andrew_S_Bowen) March 11, 2022

There’s always a chance that the Ukrainians are lying but I fail to see how it’d be a propaganda victory for them if they falsely identified Kolesnikov as KIA and then he turned up on Russian television the next day insisting that he’s fine. If they’re going to lie about killing Russian generals, they wouldn’t name names. Doing so and being proved wrong would damage their credibility.

Besides, we already know from the death of Vitaly Gerasimov that the Russian military isn’t always using secure communications to report their battlefield losses to Moscow. It’s possible, maybe likely, that the Ukrainians heard about Kolesnikov’s death because western intelligence is eavesdropping on the Russian army’s phone calls and overheard the news.

The third rumor is a doozy if true. Reportedly a site in neighboring Belarus has been bombed, a development that would be convenient for Russia if true. The Russians need reinforcements on the battlefield and Belarus’s president, Alexander Lukashenko, is a Putin client. Striking Belarus and pinning it on Ukraine would be an easy way for Russia to justify Lukachenko’s entry into the war:

#UPDATE: Reports of an airstrike on the village of Kopany inside Belarus near the Ukraine border, smoke seen rising.

Ukraine military claims it was done by Russian jets that had taken off from Dubrovytsia airbase as a false flag to bring Belarus into the war pic.twitter.com/3V4JGzgYvy

— ELINT News (@ELINTNews) March 11, 2022

⚡️⚡️⚡️The Air Defense Command of #Ukraine reports that #Russian troops attacked a settlement on the territory of #Belarus pic.twitter.com/E0A3uvu3DA

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) March 11, 2022

Ukrainian authorities are claiming Russia attacked Belarus in a false flag operation to blame Kyiv and create a pretext for Minsk to enter the war. pic.twitter.com/xmIqm8S5sx

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) March 11, 2022

Warnings of a Russian false flag op against Belarus were reportedly posted on social media even before the bombing was carried out, echoing the U.S. strategy last month of trying to deter Putin by publicizing his invasion plans before he could follow through on them. Reports have swirled for the past week that Belarusian troops are reluctant to get involved in a war that Russia is having trouble winning, replete with thinly sourced claims of mass desertion and a top general resigning. Maybe those reports were Ukrainian propaganda, maybe not. Either way, a staged attack on Belarusian soil would be an obvious device for rallying the nation and its military in favor of joining the fight against Ukraine.

So there you have it. Three rumors, all or none of which might be true. The fog of war is getting thicker.

Update: Uh oh.

Ukraine says the Belarusian military is set to cross the border at 9 p.m. Kyiv time today.
The Western branch of Ukraine’s Armed Forces urges all Belarusians to defy unlawful orders and stay away from Lukashenko’s stupid stunt.

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) March 11, 2022

Update: Those rumors about a rift between Putin and his FSB chiefs are getting extra spicy:

On 3/11, The 5th Directorate of the FSB (Operational Information and International Relations), in charge of foreign intelligence of the FSB, incl. in Ukraine, has been raided by the both FSO, Federal Protective Service of the Russian Federation ФСО – Putin’s own security service pic.twitter.com/Wn4GgLfbQ3

— Igor Sushko (@igorsushko) March 11, 2022

The raids, criminal investigations, and the arrests have taken place officially due to some trumped up accusations by the Kremlin against the 5th Directorate of corruption & bribery. The cover story for the raids is so ridiculous I won't even go into further detail.

— Igor Sushko (@igorsushko) March 11, 2022