Eh. If there’s any truth to it, I’d say Ambinder is a lot closer to the real reason than the AP is.

The surprising ascendancy of McCain’s eventual pick, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, and her popularity among some GOP conservatives have left Romney wondering whether he could wage a viable second campaign for the White House, according to friends and advisers…

“While (Palin) may not be popular with the winning majority that Barack Obama put together, she’s enormously popular with the losing minority that John McCain put together — and that pretty closely mirrors Republican primary voters,” said Rich Bond, former chairman of the Republican National Committee.

Charley Manning, a Massachusetts Republican operative who has worked as a Romney adviser, recently told a local radio interviewer: “I’d be surprised if Mitt ever ran again for president. I sure don’t think it was the best experience of his life.”

Taking on the ‘Cuda is a fool’s errand only if two things occur: (1) the economy recovers, leaving Mitt without an obvious argument for why the base should prefer him to her, and (2) Huckabee doesn’t run, thereby ceding social cons to Palin. Number one is obviously more important than number two since a sustained crisis would give the GOP a shot at the White House; absent that, I’m not sure why any Republican would want to run in 2012, especially a guy like Mitt who had to eat a ton of campaign debt this year and would probably end up on the hook for a ton more trying to take down The One’s money machine.

For a guy who’s supposedly sour on the idea, though, he sure seems to be making the right moves:

Now the onetime front-runner for the Republican nomination is schmoozing influential party insiders on the National Review’s annual cruise — a gathering of 700 conservative activists and the same forum where Palin wowed the movement’s media elite last year, beginning her meteoric rise from obscure governor to vice presidential nominee.

But even as Romney publicly declares he has no intentions to run again, several former aides said they believe he will, and this week’s get-together with leading conservatives is only the latest sign the man who spent more than $50 million of his own money to vie for the party’s nomination last year is itching to do it again…

Romney also has maintained close relationships with key supporters in the early voting states of Iowa and New Hampshire, according to party officials there, and could easily revive the infrastructure he built should he launch another bid.

A free-for-all for the nomination between him, Huck, and Palin would be fascinating insofar as it would leave Mitt open to tack gently away from the culture warrior persona he cultivated last year and be more of the technocrat he seems better suited to being. He could never challenge either of them for the love of evangelicals, so why try? I never really understood his stress on social conservatism anyway, except as a form of gross overcompensation for his previous heresies on abortion. Anyone can say “life begins at conception,” but how many people can organize the Olympics?

Almost as fascinating, but in a distinctly darker way, will be seeing who emerges as the nominee if Obama’s first term is successful. Who’s old enough and ambitious enough that they wouldn’t mind the agony of a longest-of-long-shots campaign for the presidency? The only obvious person is Newt. Exit question: Er, who’s going to be the “national security candidate” next time? Is there anyone in the party’s top tier at this point with notable credentials in that area?