This popped into my feed about an hour before turning in last night, and the news at first was both ominous and sketchy as the devil.

These were the first inklings of something horribly amiss.

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith had a kind of nebulous post...

Thank you to the first responders and all those providing care and support to those affected.

That tracked with Prime Minister Mark Carney's in saying something while saying nothing.

We are working closely with the Government of Alberta and local authorities. Premier Smith and I are in close contact as are our relevant ministers and officials.

Reports quickly surfaced about a Medevac flight being hustled into the area, and a single video of a fire started circulating as the word 'tragedy' made its way through the reports..

Recommended
Sunday Smiles David Strom Washington Post Editorial Board: The 'Childish' Lies of Medicare for All Larry Elder

...Medivac ships are flying into the area, and the official Prime Minister page is calling it a tragedy.  

The local community is being evacuated, and a large firefighter response is underway. Something big must have happened to cause this fire to get such a reaction from both the Prime Minister and Premier, so quickly. Reports of major explosions. 

No one could find any information at all.

We thought there would be some clarification hours later when, just before nine, the Canadian Defence Minister David McGinty came out with a statement, but he was just as opaque as all the others had been.

The only truly disquieting thing was when he stepped out of zipped-lip-caution after being asked by a reporter whether he had 'ever seen anything like this before,' whatever 'this' was.

 ...with the RCMP involved in the investigation and federal, provincial, and local authorities coordinating the response. McGuinty said the community of Wainwright is assisting with hospital and firefighting support, that the fire is being closely monitored, and that he could not recall a comparable incident in recent memory. He emphasized support for affected families and first responders and declined to give casualty numbers or confirm the cause while the investigation continues

Official National Defence statement (Oct. 18): A fire ignited in the training area around 4 p.m. local time on Oct. 17, spread rapidly beyond the area, and resulted in fatalities and injuries. Next-of-kin notification is the priority; casualty details will not be released until that process is complete

CFB Wainwright, in Alberta a couple of hundred miles southeast of Edmonton, is considered the crown jewel of Canadian bases, having 25 weapons ranges, and is used primarily for training. It covers about 235 sq miles and is used by both the Canadian Army and the Royal Canadian Air Force.

Yesterday afternoon, around 4 PM MT, high wind warnings were in effect, with winds gusting locally up to 100 km per hour, and relative humidity was 20 percent. Prime fire weather in anyone's book, so this deepens the mystery.

What in the Sam hell was anyone doing on a live fire range?

But I'm getting ahead of myself, because it can even be worse, from an American viewpoint.

There are two different scenarios being reported, none of which make any sense at all in those conditions, and especially given what I'm hearing about how the ranges are set up.

According to everyone who has either claimed to have worked on Wainwright at one time or another or is familiar for some other reason with the layout of the base, those ranges are apparently riddled with active natural gas wells and pipelines. Someone claimed there were up to 180 natural gas wells reported on the property in a 2014 survey.

Excuse me, WHUT?

So. Something went horribly wrong yesterday afternoon. 

Did a live-fired artillery or shoulder-fired weapon round hit a gas well by mistake, set off the explosion, which ignited the subsequent brushfire? There are also rumors of nearby buildings being flattened that may or may not have had troops in them.

Another speculative cause was a grass fire that had started because of a hot round, the insane winds drove the fire into the troops who were in the field at the time.  

...2. Artillery or other fire (one post says grenade launcher) apparently caused a grass fire that burned into an active natural gas well, or hit the well and caused an explosion that started the fire.

3. Winds drove this grass fire into a conflagration. Soldiers may have got caught  in this. 

4. The fire then burned into base ammunition storage, causing a mass casualty incident.

5. Extreme winds continue fueling rapid expansion as the fire spreads from federal land into the MD of Wainwright.

6. No Alberta Emergency Alert. Highly suspicious and shows at least a complete communication breakdown with the Alberta and Canadian governments. Gross negligence.

7. Albertans are dead, missing and injured en masse. A Code Orange (mass casualty alert) is in effect.

This is a horrible tragedy. Praying for everyone affected.

Why do this exercise in fire weather? Why the complete lack of information from the feds? The feds aren’t God.

The longer they withhold pertinent information, the less I will trust Canadian governing institutions.

Something is fishy here. Can’t put my finger on it.

It must be gross incompetence. Right?

There's the crux of the whole matter, isn't it? Why do this exercise in such extreme weather? When so much could go wrong in so many directions?

Frankly, I'm shocked they could get emergency personnel in to help with winds like that.

And so much did.

Reports of up to 150 injured, with numerous fatalities - at least seven confirmed by the government. So many need medical attention that the government declares a 'code orange,' which is their mass casualty protocol.

Injured were triaged and either put in overflow facilities in the local school (the hospital only has 25 beds), or evacuated to Edmonton or Saskatoon by air ambulance, even as more medical personnel were dropped into the base overnight to help the overwhelmed local staff.

And there is still no information at all from either Smith or Carney, and it is fueling insane amounts of conspiracy speculation because what is scheduled for tomorrow?

The vote on whether to have a referendum on Alberta's separation from Canada.

As the post above said, 'Something is fishy here,' and the Canadian government, while respecting the needs of those families who have had loved ones grievously injured or lost them to this horrific accident, needs to be upfront about what has happened and what they are looking at as possible causes. And they need to do it immediately.

The latest from the CBC this morning is just as nebulous as at five last evening.

  • Multiple people have been hurt or killed after a significant fire burned at a large training area on a Canadian Forces Base in east-central Alberta on Saturday.
  • Canada's minister of national defence did not confirm how many people died, but CBC News sources tell us there are seven fatalities in the CFB Wainwright incident.
  • Officials called a "code orange" response protocol in Edmonton to help care for a high number of patients coming from the base, while the general public was asked to avoid the University of Alberta Hospital emergency department.
  • The Department of National Defence told CBC News there were no indications that what unfolded at CFB Wainwright was the result of "any terrorist activity."
  • Alberta Premier Danielle Smith said the incident affected "many of our brave military personnel." Prime Minister Mark Carney also described the fire as "serious."

The TV updates are a little clearer on the poor folks who took the brunt of this horrible event.

And in every report, the high winds driving the fires play such a role.

We echo my friend here, sending our prayers to those Canadian troops for quick healing and to their families for comfort and strength.

Tensions were already high in Alberta, and now this ghastly tragedy is compounding the suspicion and active disdain with which many already view the Liberals in Ottawa.

'Major incident' and 'tragic,' and 'Nope, never seen anything like this before in my life,' without any explanation of what 'this' was, is gross negligence on the part of every Canadian government official.

These people have a right to know what's going on in their own backyard, and especially so on the eve of a provincial vote on self-determination.

Should more become available from 'official' sources, I'll get it to you.

God bless these poor folks.

Beege ADDS: Carney has just put out a statement confirming four dead and dozens injured 'at this time,' and says there will be a briefing this afternoon, so perhaps some clarity from the government at last.

Another perspective from someone who's worked as a safety officer on Wainwright on what he's heard. Again, this is not official.

(The 'Carl G' the poster refers to is a 'Carl Gustav,' a Saab-manufactured High Explosive (HE) shoulder-fired anti-tank anti-personnel system.)

...In fact I’ve now received a great deal of new information from soldiers who were there & want to correct the record. 

So here’s what I know: the location is correct, the scenario (an artillery round caused the explosion) was totally wrong. 

Soldiers on the ground are saying 2 training scenarios were happening in that location simultaneously. 

First there is lots of static ranges that face the second lake from rifle ranges to a 60 mm mortar range to a grenade range to an antitank range limited to the M72 & 84 mm Carl Gustov. These hand held shoulder fired anti armour weapons have been used by CDN infantry platoons for 4 decades now. They are generally very effective & reliable. 

I’m told a Carl G was being fired at a target some 300 metres away from a static cement bay using the standing position. The safety officer stands about 18” away in a cement bay observing every action taken by the loader & gunner. This is very basic infantry training & carried out at least annually. 

In this case a high explosive (HE) round was being fired. 

Apparently shortly after the HE round was fired it malfunctioned & dove at full speed into the ground striking either a buried natural gas wellhead or pipeline which exploded. There were casualties at this range caused by the blast wave. 

Simultaneously there were some 150 soldiers training in fighting in built up areas (FIBUA or Urban Warfare) using blank ammo or just running through the basic drills using dry fire. No live ammunition, no explosives of any type, certainly no live indirect fire. There were 3 wooden structures being used & all three were completely destroyed by the blast. A significant number of casualties occurred here. 

The explosion led to a grass fire which was whipped up by strong gusts of wind which blew directly through the units bivouac site (tented area where troops sleep, rest, park vehicles etc) casing additional casualties. The fire then continued on & went beyond the training area into the municipality of Wainwright. 

At this point, it appears that this series of incidents began with a round malfunctioning & doing damage that never could have been imagined let alone predicted or prevented. 

As was the case last night, the fog of war/crisis still exists so information may still change. 

This is not because of a cover up or some imaginary conspiracy. 

If the casualty count is only half as high as some are claiming you will have to go back to the darkest days of WWII to find similar numbers & never has a training exercise seen anything like this so a great deal must be done in the immediate aftermath before making definitive public statements so please have patience, please believe everyone is trying to get this right & those who really care are more than willing to correct their earlier errors as the newest information comes in. 

Think long & hard about what you post…thousand of soldiers & their families are watching! Please keep them all including the military & civilian first responders in your prayers. 

I hope this helps & I’ll potentially post more as it becomes available.