Initial jobless claims jump …

The Labor Department says that applications for unemployment benefits rose to 471,000 last week, up by 25,000 from the previous week. … The actual increase is in line with the general trend for the last six months, but after the White House claimed credit for the first solid month of actual job growth, the news shocks those who haven't paid closer attention … Initial jobless claims took a significant jump upward, shocking the ever-credulous Associated Press back into using their favorite adverb…

Initial jobless claims jump by 24,000

A government analyst, however, cautioned against reading too much into both weeks' figures, saying they were clouded by seasonal adjustment difficulties related to the Easter holiday, which falls on different weeks each year. … We're getting back to the rate of loss from 2009, and getting farther from net job creation even without considering the additional 100,000 new people that join the work force on average each month. … The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending April 3 was 4,639,000, an increase of 73,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 4,566,000…

ADP: Private sector cut 39,000 jobs in September

That spells even more problems for Democrats in the midterms, and the only major economic announcement left between now and the election will be the initial Q3 GDP rate, which is widely expected to land below a 2% annualized rate of growth, far below job creation levels and far too low to lift Democrats on the campaign trail. … The median of estimates from 38 economists surveyed by Reuters for the ADP Employer Services report, jointly developed with Macroeconomic Advisers LLC, was for a rise of 24,000 private-sector jobs in September. … Private payroll manager ADP reports today that their analysis shows the private sector lost 39,000 jobs in what is usually considered an important indicator prior to the government release, which comes on Friday…

Industrial production falls in January, consumer sentiment rises

The burst of activity in the last two months of 2012 may well have expanded inventories without final sales going up appreciably, which means more discounting and less demand in the next couple of months. … Based on January sales figures from higher-end retailers, I argued a week ago that the expiration of the payroll-tax holiday was as depressive as the stimulus had been stimulating -- which is to say, not at all -- as retail sales rose 0. … U.S. industrial production unexpectedly fell in January, weighed down by weak manufacturing and mining, according to a report on Friday that was another sign of slow economic activity at the start of the year…

Canada’s welcoming refugee policy questioned after terror attack

I'll confess right up front that I've been a bit on the glib side when encouraging Canada to take all of the illegal aliens who have been crossing the border in upstate New York, fleeing from Donald Trump. … The investigation is ongoing, but that conclusion is just not supported by the facts," Goodale told reporters in Ottawa as he headed into a meeting of the Liberal government's cabinet... … As Reuters reports this week, in the wake of the attack, Canadians are asking if enough is being done to vet the flood of new arrivals, particularly when they come from known terror hot spots like Somalia…

ADP: Private-sector job growth of 189,000 in March

Given the downslope on both PCEs and capital investment, the decline seems rather modest; a jobs gain of 189,000 from BLS on Friday would still keep pace with population growth, although it wouldn't do much more than that. … That's not necessarily a bad thing, but the recent economic boost relied heavily on PCEs and government spending (especially the latter in 2014Q3), and a reduction in consumer confidence coupled with curtailed business investment sends a rather foreboding signal on the US economy over the next few months. … Granted, ADP is not necessarily a reliable indicator of the official BLS report that will come out on Friday, but clearly the economy has not sustained even the moderate growth seen over the last twelve months…

New-home sales fall 2.3% to six-month low

That's been expected for a long time, and it shouldn't shock the markets, but it will put some extra downward pressure on resale prices, and that will attract buyers who might otherwise have interest in new builds. … Thanks to a sharp drop in construction activity over the last two years, we have finally begun to approach a rational inventory level in new single-family homes. … Sales of new single-family houses in August 2011 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 295,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development…

Existing-home sales fall 2.6% in March, adding to downward housing trend

We may not get a clear idea of how the resale market looks for several months after the release, so new-home sales and startups might give us a better indicator to watch. … Even before that, the previous three months added around 650,000 jobs in the aggregate, which means actual growth above population increase of about 300,000 jobs -- which wouldn't greatly increase demand in the housing market, but shouldn't result in a decrease in demand. … Today's report from the National Association of Realtors shows that it's not just the new-home market that tanked in March, a result which once again surprised analysts (via Instapundit)…

Weekly initial jobless claims rise by 0.485% …

Apparently, every negative economic indicator is "unexpected" at Reuters, which prompts the question as to whether they're actually paying any attention to results -- or just buying the White House spin. … Applications for unemployment benefits rose to 414,000 in the week ending September 3 from an upwardly revised 412,000 the prior week, the Labor Department said on Thursday. … New U.S. jobless claims rose unexpectedly last week, further evidence of a weak labor market just hours before President Barack Obama delivers a major address to Congress on the issue…

Unemployment goes up to 9.2%, only 18,000 jobs added

The average hours per workweek declined slightly, which means that we're losing efficiency as well as jobs, and that will mean that businesses have room to add hours before creating new positions. … Many economists raised their forecasts on Thursday after a stronger-than-expected reading on U.S. private hiring from payrolls processor ADP, and they expected gains of anywhere between 125,000 and 175,000. … U.S. employment growth ground to a halt in June, with employers hiring the fewest number of workers innine months, dampening hopes the economy was on the cusp of regaining momentum after stumbling in recent months…

Big miss in June manufacturing: Orders down 0.5%, shipments down 1.1%

Political scientist Douglas Hibbs looks at two factors when forecasting presidential elections: a) per capita real disposable personal income over the incumbent president's term, and b) cumulative U.S. military fatalities in overseas conflicts. … Demand appears to be declining across the board, with the exception of civilian aircraft last month, and that suggests that we're approaching a stall or worse in the US economy. … New orders for U.S. factory goods unexpectedly fell in June, a fresh sign that the slowdown in the country's manufacturing sector likely would stretch into the second half of the year…

Housing sales drop “unexpectedly”

Employers took 2,561 mass layoff actions in September that resulted in the separation of 248,006 workers, seasonally adjusted, as measured by new filings for unemployment insurance benefits during the month, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. … Unlike the previous government interventions, the industry did not get suckered into investing a lot of cash into new real estate and construction, foreseeing the outcome of the tax credit's expiration date. … A separate report from the Mortgage Bankers Association on Wednesday showed demand for mortgages has fallen for the past three weeks as buyers move to the sidelines ahead of the November 30 expiration of a popular home-buyers' tax credit…

Unexpected unemployment chart of the day

We're seeing stagnation at high levels of unemployment, and despite a massive hiring binge at the Census Bureau, the numbers aren't improving in the private sector at all. … The media has been doing their typical baby duck analysis: every day is a brand new day, every unemployment claims report is the first one they've ever seen. … That means that for the past 5 1/2 months, every time the administration has told us that the unemployment situation is slowly recovering, and that the data show "the right trend," they have been absolutely mistaken…

Jobless claims “unexpectedly” rise again

Merriam-Webster's free thesaurus suggests "surprisingly" (too cheery?), "improbably" (but they're all too probable), "startlingly" (hardly, given the economic policies of this administration), "unlikely" (ha … This headline underscores the point that we haven't actually seen a recovery yet, and if we're still in the high 400K range of initial jobless claims more than two years after the recession, it's probably because one hasn't actually started yet. … The number of U.S. workers filing new applications for unemployment insurance unexpectedly rose last week as claims delayed from the year-end holidays were pushed through, government data showed on Thursday…

NYC disbanded its anti-crime unit. Guess what happened next

Don't be shocked if you see the "blue flu" spreading into the Big Apple in the near future, both in solidarity with other police forces around the country and in response to the way they've been hung out to dry on their home turf. … The police are so tied up keeping track of all the demonstrations and trying to prevent more businesses - and their own squad cars - from being torched that there isn't enough time or resources to cover their usual beats. … (Because your go-to move when facing a rolling series of riots and arson attacks is to dump your anti-crime unit.) That seemed to please at least some of the anti-cop activists and agitators while scaring the bejesus out of homeowners and small businesses…

WSJ: Man, the eurozone’s big economic rebound certainly feels a lot like recession…

And speaking of France, their economy by itself contracted by one tenth of a percentage point in the third quarter, which is definitely not going to do anything to help Hollande's domestic popularity -- and according to at least one report, a lot of French people are quickly losing patience with their Socialist president and his high-tax, low-growth regime. … As ever, perhaps one of the worst side effects of this never-ending euro debacle is not merely the terrible unemployment rate stuck at a record high of more than twelve percent for the entire zone, but the many unemployed youths who have paid-for college degrees yet somehow can't seem to get their lives started … Over the summer, there was optimism aplenty that Europe was finally on track for a period of positive (if only barely) economic growth that would slowly and surely gain momentum over the next couple of years -- but the third-quarter reports are in, and unexpectedly, growth didn't pick up quite as much as some euro-financiers and -economists were hoping…

Iran suddenly discovers “unexpected” uranium reserves

The diplomats were familiar with details of a confidential arrangement between Iran and the U.N. nuclear watchdog for inspections at the Parchin site, where some countries suspect nuclear weapons-related tests may have taken place. … United Nations inspectors will be present with Iranian technicians as they take samples from a key military site, two Western diplomats said, undercutting an objection by U.S. Republicans to the nuclear deal between Iran and world powers. … Speaking of great timing, Iran has also just announced in the most reasonable of fashions that they will be allowing IAEA inspectors to be present for the collection of samples at the heavily guarded Parchin military site…

Video: Durable goods decline 1.8%, business investment a mixed bag in May

So far, the first two durable goods reports of the quarter don't show much sign of a significant rebound, although they're not exactly demonstrating a recession either. … Analysts believe that the contraction in Q1 relates to an especially cold winter and some issues in seasonal adjustments to economic data, and that Q2 will show a sharp rebound. … After the contraction of the first quarter, most analysts expected a rebound in Q2, but today's durable goods report from the Census Bureau delivers at best a mixed bag…

The Hypocrisy Act of 2010

New spending can also be offset by tax increases under what is known as pay-as-you-go rules, but Republicans oppose tax hikes most of the time and say the problem is too much spending. … We will get an idea when the second- and third-quarter GDP numbers get published later this year, but it's not for nothing that major firms now predict a much smaller level of growth from even the moderate growth we've already seen in 2010. … Yes, at exactly the moment when businesses need pricing signals for a decrease in costs in order to attract the kind of investment that spurs growth, Congress wants to hike taxes instead -- in order to pay for its own aggrandizing public projects…

Mortgage applications drop 9.5% after end of tax credit

Had we adopted a posture of lower taxes and regulatory burdens instead of signaling exactly the opposite for the past sixteen months, we would already be well on our way to recovery. … The sharp drop in mortgage applications at a time when interest rates fell indicates the ongoing weakness of the housing market, and the folly of interfering with the proper market balance of supply and demand. … Obviously, the tax credit enticed some people to buy, but we have seen no evidence that it created any more qualified or interested buyers than would normally have existed without it…

Quote of the Day

The suggested changes come after four embarrassing but small errors have popped up recently in one of the panel's four reports." … "The proposals to reform the International Panel on Climate Change are published in Thursday's issue of the journal Nature. … "Some climate scientists are calling for drastic changes in how future United Nations climate reports are done…

Reuters’ economist survey predicts lower growth in 2010, 2011

And if Democrats thought this midterm election season was tough, the survivors of this election will see an even angrier and more motivated electorate in 2012 if the economy does nothing but stagnate for the next eighteen months. … If unemployment rates remain above 8% or higher coming into the presidential primary season, Obama will have a lot of difficulty convincing his party to stifle a primary challenge, let alone convincing voters in a general election to give him a second term. … The September poll marked the third consecutive month economists had scaled back expectations for gross domestic product in the second half, and followed the U.S. government's announcement on Friday that unemployment ticked up to 9…

ADP: Private sector only added 13K jobs in June

But first and foremost, continued signs of sluggish job growth and weak demand for housing in the U.S. show that the rebound from the Great Recession is not going to be sharp and fast like a letter V. … In the last two years, we have only had one month of private-sector job growth above population expansion, in March, which underscores the difficulty in catching back up to the near-full employment the US had before the current recession and recovery. … Payrolls processor ADP said Wednesday that hiring by private companies climbed slightly in June, with a paltry 13,000 jobs added during the month, compared with a revised gain of 57,000 jobs in May…

Housing starts plunge to 2010 low in May

I've written repeatedly about the Obama administration's kick-the-can economic policies, such as Cash for Clunkers and the short-term home-buyer tax credit, and their inability to do anything but delay the inevitable revaluing of property and credit. … The relative lack of interest in new permits -- its lowest level in a year -- indicates that players in the home-construction market see this as a turndown of at least moderate length, and it hits at what should be prime building season. … Housing starts fell more than expected in May to their lowest level in five months, a government report showed on Wednesday, as a popular homebuyer tax credit that had buoyed construction activity over the past two months expired…

New residential sales sink 12.6% from December, 18.6% from previous January

The only possible way government can stimulate the economy now is to reduce the regulatory burden it has created over the last several years, a direction opposite to this administration's instincts and announced goals. … New U.S. single-family home sales fell more than expected in January, a government report showed on Thursday, pulled down by a plunge in activity in the country's West as a homebuyer state tax credit in California ended. … Sales of new single-family houses in January 2011 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 284,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development…

Housing price decline “moderating”?

If we can keep government from interfering with the process, we might get the rest of it out and reposition the housing markets for their traditional, inflation-linked long-term growth -- but if we can't stop foreclosures and joblessness from undermining rational valuations, we may keep right on tumbling. … Housing prices will continue to fall as long as prices still outstrip market value, and that relies on two factors: the amount of irrational valuation still left in the market from the 1998-2008 bubble, and the inventory of foreclosures. … Even so, economists cautioned house prices will likely continue to crawl along at low levels, and could have further to fall, as the battered housing market works through an excess amount of houses for sale, ongoing foreclosures, tight credit and weak demand…

Return of the Summer of Wreckovery?

The report cites a combination of factors including lethargic consumer spending, reflecting decreased confidence combined with declines in federal defense spending and cash strapped states tightening their belts as well. … WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The U.S. economy slowed markedly in the first quarter and inflation accelerated, clear evidence of the double whammy on the economy from higher gasoline prices. … A pair of new reports surfaced this week casting a dim light on the nation's economic recovery, which even optimistic administration supporters have labeled as "fragile," among other things…

Durable goods, business investment drop …

With three of four months going negative, it's clear that whatever produced the momentary boost in 2014Q3 is not sustainable, and neither are the policies that produced it -- and the five years of stagnation that preceded it. … Given how inexpensive gas became when the oil bubble popped, one would have expected that sudden boost in disposable income to translate into gains in durable goods. … Economists, however, expect domestic demand to strengthen in the months ahead and hope that will be enough to offset weakness caused by a stronger dollar, which dampens export sales of U.S. companies…

Who saw it coming: Jordan’s negotiations with ISIS over hostages collapse

"There was no official statement from the Jordanian government that Ms. Rishawi was still in the country, but officials repeated their position that they required proof that Lieutenant [Moaz al] Kasasbeh was still alive," The New York Times reported. … That decision had some shock value not only because it is generally rare to see Western coalition partners negotiate with groups they admit to be terrorist organizations, but because the prisoner ISIS demanded in exchange was involved in one of the worst terrorist attacks in that country's history. … When the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria set terms for the release of a Jordanian fighter pilot captured when his plane was disabled over Syria, it was only marginally shocking that Jordan signaled it was willing to negotiate with ISIS fighters…

Poll: Republican voters back immigration reform?

In worse news for opponents of immigration reform, voters do not believe that the argument that President Barack Obama would not enforce border security provisions in an immigration bill is a valid reason for opposing reform. … The Republican firm Harper Polling's automated survey of between 500 and 855 likely voters in 26 states (Arkansas, Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Illinois, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Mississippi, Minnesota, North Carolina, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Virginia, Washington and Wisconsin) shows voters believe the system is broken and in need of repair. … While immigration reform may not be high on voters' lists of priorities heading into the 2014 midterms, a new survey of a variety of critical states shows that Americans are predisposed to support efforts to repair the nation's immigration system…

Yet another Obamacare incentive program crashes and burns

One other possibility: Ryan and his colleagues noticed, in the data, is that when you look back at 2008, there is some evidence that hospitals were improving back then at a faster rate than the non-participants. … In order to address that issue, she suggests that the British National Health Service, which ties 20 percent of a doctor's pay to the quality of care they provide based on government evaluations, seems like the way to go. … It seems as though yet another of Obamacare's many "nudging" efforts, aimed at creating incentives for the population to behave in ways deemed by technocrats to be of maximum public benefit, has failed dismally…

Indicators: Consumer spending not looking too good

But just remember, friends: It isn't the Obama economy that's going to put a damper on your holiday season; Republicans' failure to hike taxes and further pummel the economy are going to be the real cause of a "Scrooge Christmas. … And here's yet another bit of negative economic news: The Department of Agriculture released new data confirming that the number of Americans enrolled for food-stamp benefits reach a new high for the month of September, another indicator of just how much Americans are struggling and the results of Obama's failed policies. … Now a range of factors, from high unemployment to the prospect of increased taxes due to the approaching "fiscal cliff," are threatening to sap consumers' spending power at a time when other sectors of the economy likely are too weak to pick up the slack. ……

Retail sales fall 0.4% in March, most in 9 months

Readings for retail sales have been volatile so far this year, making it difficult to know whether the weakness in March was due to a tax hike that went into effect at the start of the year or to temporary factors related to the weather. … The cuts in federal spending didn't even affect government payrolls, which only lost 7,000 workers in March, thanks to 14,000 layoffs at the Post Office -- which wasn't hit by the sequester at all. … The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for March, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $418…

So what’s Trump’s “major announcement” on the border?

A couple of thoughts on the announcement follow, but I first wanted to highlight that final sentence from the Associated Press because it's fairly typical of the media message this year. … After days of bitter clashes between Trump and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, it was unclear if the twin developments represented serious steps toward resolving the nasty partisan fight or posturing. … Democrats are now proposing hundreds of millions of dollars for new immigration judges and improvements to ports of entry from Mexico but nothing for the wall, a House aide said, as the party begins fleshing out its vision of improving border security…

AP: Applying for ObamaCare benefits could be as daunting as doing your taxes

The Affordable Care Act (ACA), enacted in 2010 and derided by Republicans as "ObamaCare," contains the broadest set of tax changes enacted in some two decades — more than 40 alterations in all, including penalties on people who choose not to purchase insurance. … And, just in case you were worried, have no fear: Sequestration will not impact the collection of ObamaCare's many new taxes and fees, because no way could the administration allow anything to jeopardize the image or implementation of their crowning legislative jewel, could they? … The Associated Press reports that, as the state exchanges through which all Americans will soon need to purchase insurance (if they don't already have it) continue to develop, it's increasingly clear that the process is going to be neither as fast nor as simple as the administration claimed…

Violent crime “unexpectedly” surges in Baltimore

But by the same token, the government has to be able to send a clear message that law enforcement in general is a force for good and that the officers on the streets have the full backing of the executive branch. … While crime is rising in Baltimore, the numbers of arrests have been dropping with numbers dipping 22 percent in the first three months of 2015 and even more sharply after Gray's death on April 19 touched off rioting. … But it's not just protesters mixed with rioters taking part in some sort of overly exuberant social justice movement... it looks like regular old criminals are seizing the day and making hay while the sun shines…

How the media treated those Jewish community center bomb threats

Without coming out and directly say it, nearly every report referenced the "rise of nationalism and radical hate crimes since the election of Donald Trump" every time one of these bomb threats came in. … On the odd chance you don't know what I'm talking about, let's just admit that everyone was expecting the perpetrator to turn out to be some deranged Trump supporter who was taking a break from his KKK meetings to make a few phone calls. … Hopefully he was acting alone and the treats will stop now, but it's worth asking the question of whether or not the mainstream media will take any lessons away from this…