NARN, the Unexpected Edition!

We'll also unpack the new job numbers from yesterday, and explain how the official jobless rate hides a much bigger problem in the employment picture. … Today, Mitch and I talk about the EunuchBomber, the intelligence and security problems the botched attack exposed, and the Obama administration's response. … The Northern Alliance Radio Network will be on the air today, with our eight-hour-long broadcast schedule starting at 9 am CT. If you're in the Twin Cities, you can hear us on AM 1280 The Patriot, or on the station's Internet stream if you're outside of the broadcast area…

Factory orders drop … unexpectedly

The bleak indicators come just after Congress adjourned for the holiday weekend without extending jobless benefits, and a day ahead of a report expected to show only modest improvement in the national job market. … A raft of weak new reports Thursday provided the strongest evidence yet that the recovery is slowing and added to concerns that the nation could be on its way back into recession. … New orders for factory products tumbled much more than expected in May, posting their sharpest drop since the depth of the recession and their first decline in nine months, a government report showed on Friday…

Guess what rose “unexpectedly”?

Planned reductions for last month were led by retail companies, which announced 16,737 job cuts, and telecommunications companies, which cut 14,010 jobs. … Planned layoff announcements at major U.S. corporations increased 59% in January, reaching 71,482 from a nine-year low of 45,094 seen in December, according to the latest job-cut tally by Challenger Gray & Christmas. … The number of newly laid-off workers filing initial claims for jobless benefits rose unexpectedly last week, evidence that layoffs are continuing and jobs remain scarce…

Turns out that reset button worked after all, with Russia and China

"(We) hope the U.S. side can pay great attention to China's concerns, earnestly respect our core interests, avoid words and actions that harm bilateral ties, and reduce activities which cause misunderstandings or misjudgments," [Admiral Sun Jianguo] added. … China hopes the United States can scale back activities that run the risk of misunderstandings, and respect China's core interests, the Defense Ministry on Thursday cited a senior Chinese naval commander as saying. … A Russian general delivered to a surprised U.S. military attache in Baghdad an abrupt diplomatic notice that within the hour Russian war planes would begin bombing in Syria and a demand that U.S. forces stay out of the way…

Solyndra shuts its doors

Now, with Solyndra moving into Chapter 11, it looks like all that money is lost for good -- and instead of saving or creating jobs, a thousand or more workers will have to start looking for a new job soon. … The President visited the facility in May of last year and said "it is just a testament to American ingenuity and dynamism and the fact that we continue to have the best universities in the world, the best technology in the world, and most importantly the best workers in the world. … Solyndra abruptly shut its doors today and declared bankruptcy, two years after getting over a half-billion dollars from the Obama administration's Porkulus…

New house sales fall 0.7% in July to 5-month low

Unfortunately, it appears that the Obama administration is about to reach for more short-term gimmickry on jobs and perhaps in the housing markets again, which will only make it more difficult to reach the rational equilibrium these markets desperately need. … New single-family home sales fell more than expected in July to hit a five month low and the prior month's pace was revised down, though the supply of homes available on the market dropped to a record low... … Sales of new single-family houses in July 2011 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 298,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development…

Consumer spending slides again in May

Based on reports from the first two months and no evidence of traction in the job market, I'd guess that Q2 will come in at 0% or slightly under. … They quote an economist as saying that the slowing activity among consumers will shave "a couple of tenths of a point" from Q2's eventual GDP growth number. … The report, which showed underlying inflation quickening, suggested that consumer spending would offer little support to the economy in the second quarter…

Weekly jobless claims show more of the same

New claims for unemployment benefits rose more than expected last week, a government report showed on Thursday, suggesting little improvement in the labor market this month after employment stumbled in May. … The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending June 11 was 3,697,000, a decrease of 1,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,698,000. … In the week ending June 18, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 429,000, an increase of 9,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 420,000…

New home sales plunge 16.9% to new low

New single-family home sales unexpectedly fell in February to hit a record low and prices were the lowest since December 2003, showing the housing market slide was deepening. … Sales of new single-family houses in February 2011 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 250,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. … Sure enough, the Census Bureau confirms that sales of new homes has hit another record low in the 48 years that the US government has tracked this economic indicator, sliding to an annual sales rate of 250,000…

Reuters economists expect even more of the unexpected next year

And with Democrats defending a lot more Senate seats than Republicans in 2012, will the 2012 cycle be just a continuing echo of the 2010 wave expected to crest in less than three weeks? … It's coming from the White House and Congress, which have so far run away from the issue of the scheduled across-the-board tax hikes, and also have introduced so much regulatory uncertainty that no one knows what it will cost to maintain the status quo on labor and health care in 2011, let alone how much money expansion will require. … The U.S. growth outlook has darkened significantly in the latest Reuters poll, even though the Federal Reserve is unanimously expected to embark on a fresh round of asset purchases to prop up the economy…

Consumer sentiment drops to lowest level since August 2009 …

With consumer sentiment rapidly souring back to the levels of the beginning of the Obama administration and 111th Session of Congress, Democrats are in a very bad position for the upcoming midterms, with very little time for improvement. … Consumer sentiment unexpectedly worsened in early September to its weakest level in more than a year, as distress over jobs and finances intensified among upper-income families, a survey released on Friday showed. … Last week, Reuters polled its economists and determined that the US would not see any significant growth for at least the next year, thanks to mostly poor economic indicators this summer…

Initial jobless claims rising to six-month high; Update: “Unexpectedly,” says Reuters

The number of U.S. workers filing new claims for unemployment insurance unexpectedly rose to its highest level in close to six months, a fresh signal of a weak jobs market... … We have not even come close to the 325,000 level that usually indicates healthy job creation over that which merely keeps up with population growth, and we are once again headed in the wrong direction. … The new data marks a high since the first quarter of the year, and comes as no surprise after the latest round of economic indicators show stagnation and malaise setting into the American economy…

Cheers! Farewell drinks for Sarah Huckabee Sanders… with WH reporters?

Sanders later told Mueller's office that the comment had been a "slip of the tongue" and that the assertion, which she'd supposedly heard from "rank-and-file FBI agents," was "not founded on anything," according to the special counsel's report. … That same month, the long-awaited report from special counsel Robert Mueller provided hard evidence that Sanders lied at a White House press conference in 2017 when she claimed the administration had "heard from countless members of the FBI" who'd lost faith in former FBI Director James Comey. … It is surprising to read that a couple of White House correspondents are inviting other reporters and some White House staff to toast her with farewell drinks as she ends her time behind the press secretary's podium…

Initial weekly jobless claims drop, residential construction jumps

That suggests that home builders are ready to take some real risk, although it's good to remember that we're near an all-time low in building now and that a modest increase can look impressive in percentage terms. … New U.S. claims for unemployment benefits dropped to a seven-month low last week, a government report showed on Thursday, suggesting the labor market was gaining some traction... … The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending November 5 was 3,608,000, a decrease of 57,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,665,000…

Hey, something new and different: CBO raises another estimate of ObamaCare costs

Nearly 6 million Americans - most of them in the middle class - will face a tax penalty for not carrying medical coverage once President Barack Obama's health care overhaul law is fully in place, congressional budget analysts said Wednesday... … One of the reasons the CBO cited for upping their estimate on the number of people who will pay the penalty is the enduring overall crumminess of our economy, meaning that they now expect that more people than originally anticipated will be unemployed, which in turn will make it harder to for people to buy insurance coverage. … Six million Americans will pay the health care tax rather than obtain coverage under President Obama's health care law, according to a new Congressional Budget Office estimate Wednesday — a 50 percent increase over CBO's estimate of just two years ago…

Manufacturing drop “sharpest” in 3 years in August

So even though Obama's reelection slogan is "Forward," there's not much talk—at least not yet—of what the country would move forward toward, or of the specific policies that Obama would enact to propel the nation up and out of the current low-wattage economic recovery. … If they wait until the jobs report to start talking about the economy and a second-term Obama agenda in any serious way, they'll likely have to play even more defense over the next two months. … While Democrats continue to fumble the "better off" question, new economic indicators provided even more of a challenge to Barack Obama and his surrogates as the Democratic National Convention opens today…

Thanks, Obama. Health insurance rates jumping up… again

(Or, in the revised language of the White House, at least not go up as quickly.) The insurance companies are shocked (!) to find that they are getting flooded with very sick customers who generate a lot of costs while young, healthy people simply aren't signing up in the predicted numbers. … Since Aetna is looking to buy Humana, and United Health has been talking about buying both Cigna and Aetna, that sort of massive market share dominance could reduce competition to effectively zero with even higher rates driving more and more customers to the exchanges. … Blue Cross and Blue Shield plans — market leaders in many states — are seeking rate increases that average 23 percent in Illinois, 25 percent in North Carolina, 31 percent in Oklahoma, 36 percent in Tennessee and 54 percent in Minnesota, according to documents posted online by the federal government and state insurance commissioners and interviews with insurance executives…

Obama’s thaw with Cuba is going so great that they just undermined sanctions on Venezuela

For all of America's bending over backwards in order to join the rest of the world in welcoming communist Cuba into the community of nations, the government in Havana is apparently not prepared to jettison their allies in Caracas merely for the promise of a few American tourist dollars. … For an American president who could not bring himself to make note of the tyrannical and corrupt way in which the late Hugo Chavez comported himself while in office following the former Venezuela leader's death, reaching the conclusion that Nicolas Maduro's government is no better must have been dispiriting. … "The US sanctions target seven high-level military, police and government officials, who the White House says were involved in human rights abuses or corruption, including the director of the national police, the head of the intelligence service and a prosecutor who has charged opposition leaders with conspiracy," The Guardian reported…

Great news: Mass layoffs making a comeback

Four of those industries (food service contractors, full-service restaurants, commercial plumbing/HVAC contractors, and casino hotels) had their peak in mass-layoff events in 2009, which is predictable. … Employers took 1,599 mass layoff actions in May involving 143,540 workers, seasonally adjusted, as measured by new filings for unemployment insurance benefits during the month, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. … If these trends continue, we may soon be talking about losses in the monthly employment data -- not just disappointing growth, says Howard Davidowitz, CEO of Davidowitz & Associates[.]…

June existing-home sales drop …

Update: Reuters runs another article today on a substantial increase in mortgage applications, the largest increase in four months, but that turns out to be due to refinancing applications prompted by low interest rates. … Bank lending got tightened considerably in the aftermath of the 2008 collapse; at the moment, they're under pressure to loosen lending, not tighten it, which makes that an unlikely explanation. … It may be jitters from the recent economic conditions or because banks may have tightened lending conditions, meaning that the financing a buyer hoped to get was no longer available…

New jobless claims spike upward …

We saw temporary spikes in last year's otherwise-predictable level of weekly jobless claims, too On a few occasions, the number spiked above 500,000, but it didn't stay at that level. … The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending April 2 was 3,680,000, a decrease of 58,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,738,000. … The burst of hiring at the end of the year seemed to have move the needle a little, although the level of claims still stayed significantly above the consensus break-even range of 300K-325K…

Unemployment drops to 9.7%

As before, shrinking the denominator of the population of jobseekers has the same effect as increasing the nominator of people holding jobs -- it decreases the ratio of unemployment to the population. … Construction employment declined by 75,000 in January, with nonresidential specialty trade contractors (-48,000) accounting for the majority of the decline. … The report also included an annual revision to the estimates of total payrolls, which showed there were 930,000 fewer jobs last March than previously estimated…

Uh oh: Leading economic indicators slip in April

Going backwards will expose that as fantasy and leave Democrats holding the bag for a set of failed economic policies that will have left the nation even more deeply in debt than when Democrats took total control of Washington. … Instead, it looks like the artificial stimuli had only a temporary effect on expansion, and now that the markets have to deal with rational evaluations of both assets and pricing signals on taxes and debt, the party may be over before it got started. … As of today, at least according to a Google Reader search of "economic indicators" in my newspaper feeds (which include the New York Times, Washington Post, the Los Angeles Times, the Boston Globe, and more Associated Press clients), the only paper that picked this story up for publication was the Washington Times…

More “unexpected” economic news

They also probably learned from the White House projections on job growth this week that any economic growth this year is likely to be modest, more like running in place than moving ahead. … At least we don't continually use some version of the word "unexpected" in the reporting, as we did with Reuters earlier this week with a hint of possible trouble ahead … U.S. consumer sentiment slipped in early February, with high unemployment expected to continue and with most looking for no gain in income or home values in the year ahead, a survey released Friday showed…

Housing starts “unexpectedly” tumble

After the expiration of the government's Cash for Clunkers program this year, there was little inventory of 2009 vehicles left, leading to a faster changeover to the 2010 model year, Brian Bethune, a financial economist for IHS Global Insight, said in a research note. … The decline probably reflects that nervous builders scaled back amid uncertainty about whether the first-time home-buyer tax credit that had buoyed sales most of the year would expire as scheduled this month, analysts said. … The Washington Post reports on an economic indicator that went negative at the conclusion of a big government subsidy, something that a first-year econ student could have foreseen…

Philadelphia’s soda tax bombed as predicted

While researchers found that sales of sugary beverages fell in Philadelphia after the tax, beverage sales in nearby towns and counties without the tax went up. … In the wake of the tax, sales on those beverages dropped by a whopping 51% in the first year, according to a study published Tuesday in the medical journal JAMA. … Back when Philadelphia decided to join the ranks of liberal cities fleecing its inhabitants with a soda tax to "improve their health," we predicted here that it was going to backfire…

Great news: Service industry now slowing down, too

The five industries reporting contraction in July are: Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Utilities; and Construction. … The 13 non-manufacturing industries reporting growth in July based on the NMI composite index — listed in order — are: Transportation & Warehousing; Mining; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Accommodation & Food Services; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Retail Trade; Public Administration; Educational Services; Information; Finance & Insurance; Other Services; and Wholesale Trade. … The pace of growth in the services sector ticked down unexpectedly in July to the lowest level since February 2010, while the number of jobs created by the private sector also slowed, separate reports showed on Wednesday…

Consumer confidence falls as housing markets plunge …

"They should have looked at rents," said Maury Harris, chief U.S. economist in New York at UBS Securities LLC, whose team at UBS was the most accurate inflation forecaster over 2009 and 2010, according to Bloomberg calculations. … Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and his colleagues say they will hold interest rates at record lows for an "extended period," based on an assessment that slack in the economy from 9 percent unemployment will help subdue core inflation and any threat of accelerating prices likely will be "transitory. … For all the attention given to almost $4-a-gallon gas, the biggest threat to containing U.S. inflation may be the shift away from homeownership, which is pushing up the cost of leases across the nation's 38 million rented residences…

Trade deficit jumped 14.1% in March

It may show demand picking back up in March, although that would be in conflict with the worst-in-three-years factory orders and durable-goods reports for the same month. … The bigger-than-expected rise follows government data on Wednesday that showed wholesale inventories grew less than expected in March, leaving analysts to conclude the government would likely lower its first-quarter estimate of gross domestic product from the 2. … A separate report showed the U.S. trade deficit widened more than expected in March as imports surged to a record high, in another sign the government may have to scale back its estimate of first-quarter economic growth…

Weekly initial jobless claims jump 23,000 from last announced level …

Despite the rise in claims last week, both first-time applications for unemployment aid and the four-week average held below the 400,000 mark, implying job gains above March's tally. … New claims for unemployment benefits rose last week to their highest level since January, a development that could raise fears the labor market recovery was stalling after job creation slowed in March. … The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending March 31 was 3,251,000, a decrease of 98,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,349,000…

First-quarter GDP drops to 2.7%

Unemployment, combined with the turmoil in financial markets and a lack of inflation, are among reasons Federal Reserve policy makers this week reiterated a pledge to keep interest rates low. … The revised figures showed an economy that was more dependent on inventory restocking and less driven by demand from consumers and businesses before the European debt crisis intensified. … The revised increase in gross domestic product was smaller than the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News and compares with a 3 percent estimate issued last month, figures from the Commerce Department showed today in Washington…

Mortgage delinquencies hit new record

The only real cure for this is to stimulate large-scale economic growth, but the Obama administration has already wasted a year with an ineffective stimulus plan and shackled growth through its signals on taxes, fees, and debt. … While the market needed to correct for irresponsible lending, a correction delayed by gimmicks from the Obama administration, the risk now is an extended collapse in the housing and lending markets as inventory increases and lenders take more losses. … As people remain unemployed for longer periods of time -- and the average length of unemployment is at its highest in decades -- they will miss more house payments regardless of whether they bought responsibly or not…

New jobless claims rise …

The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending March 27 were in Texas (+3,640), Oregon (+2,412), New Jersey (+1,715), California (+1,275), and Kentucky (+926), while the largest decreases were in Michigan (-2,240), Illinois (-1,872), Oklahoma (-1,270), Missouri (-1,079), and North Carolina (-673). … In the week ending April 3, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 460,000, an increase of 18,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 442,000. … The news from the Department of Labor will almost certainly come "unexpectedly" to the media, as initial jobless claims rose significantly despite the rosy spin put on the Census Bureau-driven employment numbers from March (via DogSoldier)…

Momentum? Second estimate of Q3 GDP at 3.9%

Money News notes that the Fed has been using a variant of the so-called Taylor Rule to guide their interest rate decisions, which uses a calculation that balances inflation rates and economic slack, the latter of which has a fairly flexible definition. … The deceleration in the percent change in real GDP reflected a downturn in private inventory investment and decelerations in exports, in nonresidential fixed investment, in state and local government spending, in PCE, and in residential fixed investment that were partly offset by a downturn in imports and an upturn in federal government spending. … The increase in real GDP in the third quarter reflected positive contributions from PCE, nonresidential fixed investment, federal government spending, exports, residential fixed investment, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by a negative contribution from private inventory investment…

Not a conspiracy anymore: The left cheers as employers scale back health coverage

She observed that Walmart, along with the rest of the large firms dropping benefits for their part-time employees, is "shifting costs over to the government, which will now take on the financial burden of helping to pay for thousands' of part-time workers' medical bills." … Harry Reid (D-NV), who told a Nevada media outlet that the ACA was a way in which the country could begin to "work our way past" the private insurance model, some conservatives charged that Obamacare was designed to kick start the process of dismantling the system of employer-based insurance. … Even before the Affordable Care Act was signed into law, its conservative critics warned of the perverse incentive contained within the law which could prompt employers to reduce the health benefits they offered to some of their employees…

Unemployment steady at 9.6%, 95,000 jobs lost in September; Update: “Unexpectedly”; Update: “Unexpectedly” unexpectedly deleted

The word is constantly overused by news organizations like the Associated Press and Reuters, and now when first-string bloggers make note of the word usage – and make fun of its use – the organizations continue to use the word only to pull it from copy within an hour or so. … The U.S. economy unexpectedly shed jobs in September for a fourth straight month as government payrolls fell and private hiring was less than expected, hardening expectations of further Federal Reserve action to spur the recovery. … Private sector growth wasn't exactly beating down the doors in August or July, either, but the AP is correct in noting that it's going in the wrong direction…

Wait… the Arbery video was leaked by who?

The ironic shocker — that it was ex-cop Gregory McMichael who leaked the very video that would expose the Arbery shooting to the world, leading to father-son murder charges — was reported Friday by WSB-TV in Atlanta... … Viral video of the shooting of unarmed Georgia jogger Ahmaud Arbery was first leaked to the press at the request of the dad now accused of his murder — because he thought it would make him and his son look better. … I believe that many of us assumed that the driver of the trailing car must have shared it on social media, leading to the video angering someone who then anonymously sent it to attorney Alan Tucker (who had done some work for the McMicaels) who then sent it to reporters…

Initial jobless claims rise again

The number of workers filing new applications for unemployment insurance unexpectedly rose last week as the manufacturing, construction and education sectors shed employees, adding to worries that the economic recovery is slowing... … Unemployment isn't coming down, and now with the home market starting to tank again, we can probably expect more losses in construction in the summer, when prime building season should be employing people seasonally. … Furthermore, the AP report states that "First-time claims have hovered near 450,000 since the beginning of the year," but the truth is that more claims numbers have come in above 450K this year than below it…

Retail sales have biggest drop since September

Furthermore, the credit simply steals sales from future demand (as we have seen in the 40% drop in mortgage applications since its expiration), which means that the lenders will eventually be overstaffed after the demand bubble bursts. … The National Association of Realtors said many home buyers will not be able to meet the June 30 closing deadline because of the surge in loan volume and delays related to home appraisals and short sales, transactions in which lenders allow struggling homeowners to sell their homes for less than they owe on them. … To qualify for the tax credit -- $8,000 for some first-time buyers and $6,500 for certain current homeowners -- buyers must have signed a contract by April 30 and close on the their transactions by June 30…

Another set of flat economic indicators

That may or may not be impacting this month's numbers directly, but it certainly isn't whetting appetites for the kind of risk-taking needed to start a significant economic expansion. … "There's still a lack of risk appetite for company debt," said Ben Bennett, who helps manage the equivalent of $125 billion of corporate bonds as credit strategist at Legal & General Investment Management in London. … Companies sold the least amount of bonds in a decade this month as concern Europe's sovereign debt crisis will slow the global economy drove up relative borrowing costs by the most since the aftermath of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc…