This morning, President Trump posted a warning on Truth Social which was mostly directed at Mexican President Sheinbaum. Stop the caravans of illegal migrants passing through Mexico or tariffs on Mexico will double.

There have indeed been two caravans traveling through Mexico since the midterm election. I wrote about one of them here. Reports from CNN, Reuters and other sources have all indicated that the migrants left Central America because they believed the midterms had changed the situation at the American border. Some of the quotes from these stories were highlighted by the White House today:

Where is this message coming from? Well, some of it is coming from the news media that are reporting how Democrats are talking about ICE and Trump's immigration crackdown.

President Sheinbaum was quick to respond to Trump's warning, saying that no caravan has made it to the U.S. border since Trump's reelection and that one of the two caravans currently in Mexico has already been broken up.

“Not a single migrant caravan has reached the north” since January 2025, Sheinbaum said at her daily news briefing.

Sheinbaum said a caravan of about 600 migrants traveling through the southern state of Chiapas had largely dispersed after its members were told that reaching the United States would be “very difficult.”

She said Mexican authorities were also in talks with another group of several hundred Honduran migrants, encouraging them to return to their home country.

Asked whether Mexico would use force to break up the caravans, Sheinbaum ruled out such measures, saying authorities have “extensive experience” accompanying migrants and explaining that they have little chance of crossing into the United States.

Here's video of her statement.

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There's some question about whether Sheinbaum's facts presented in her statement this morning were completely accurate.

"There is no caravan currently in transit through our country on its way to the border," she said.

An earlier caravan had "dissolved while en route, and most of its members have already returned to their countries of origin, and another caravan is ‌only ⁠just forming," she said.

The other caravan that is just forming is reportedly as large as 1,500 to 2,000 people. 

Mexico's National Migration Institute told Reuters a group of about 870 people was gathered in the city of Huixtla, some 60 km (37 miles) ⁠west of Mexico's southern border with Guatemala.

Two local sources and a non-governmental organization estimated the group at 1,500 to 2,000 people. The numbers would make this the largest migrant caravan so far this year.

So it's true that no caravans have made it the border yet, but it's also true that since the election we've had three caravans form, all of them convinced the election had opened a door for them. "We can see the Senate has been won by the Democrats," one migrant said. "That's a big victory for us since the Democrats are in favor of immigrants," he added.

Finally, if you want a much more detailed overview of how the migrant caravans form and move through Mexico, this video is worth a watch if you can spare 20 minutes.