The opening paragraph pretty much says it all.
The reign of the Tea Party may be coming to an end in Washington, according to academic political experts who say polls show a backlash against the conservative movement.
So what data are we drawing our conclusions from this time?
The CNN poll showed the Tea Party’s favorable/unfavorable rating grew from 37 percent in October of 2010 to 51 percent in August 2011.
The New York Times poll, conducted Aug. 2 – Aug. 4, showed the movement’s popularity at 20 percent and unpopularity at 40 percent. The unpopularity rating was 14 points higher than in October of 2010.
“If you were paying attention to the coverage, the characterization of people resistant to raising the debt ceiling was they were Tea Party supporters or members of the Tea Party caucus,” said Charles Franklin, a professor of political science at the University of Wisconsin and a polling specialist. “That characterization is an element in the current apparent decline in Tea party popularity.”
It seems like I’ve been hearing about the pending implosion and disappearance of the Tea Party ever since… well, roughly ten minutes after I’d heard of the Tea Party. And yet for progressive activists, the movement continues to stubbornly hang around like that zit you don’t want to pop two days before the prom because you’re just sure it’s going to go away on its own. (And inevitably you wind up with the worst yearbook photo ever.)
Fortunately for Democrats, our balanced, dual nature society has produced an equally effective and opposite counter-movement in the form of the Coffee Party. Right guys?
Guys?
Helloooooooo?
Well, I’m sure they’ll be along presently. They’re probably just on a coffee break or something.
That doesn’t mean there aren’t some lessons to be taken from the data this study cites. There is always a danger of any movement becoming a victim of its own success by overreaching. For November of 2012, this isn’t a straw poll or a fight taking place in a single congressional district or even an entire state. National elections are always, always, always determined by the middle. No matter how much you please the base – or fail to do so – they will show up on election day. Traditionally, reaching for all the marbles in one grab risks knocking them all off the table.
Just something to consider.
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