For months, news headlines breathlessly detailed computer models predicting tens of millions dead worldwide, while the CDC’s own predictions estimated up to 1.7 million lost American lives. At the same time, the public was told that little was known about the disease and all of the assumptions in these models could change, rendering these predictions little more than wildly changing estimates. By last week at least one model had revised U.S. deaths all the way down to 143,360 through August.

Rather than emphasize the uncertainty of the models driving policymaking, officials and media outlets have routinely cited them in unqualified fashion.

In another aspect of shifting guidance, today the World Health Organization advises social distancing of one meter (three feet), the CDC recommends six feet and scientists have published research suggesting distances as great as 27 feet might be required.