Why Trump is rallying in New Mexico

Reality check: Demographers and pollsters tell Axios it’s highly unlikely Trump can win New Mexico’s 5 electoral votes.

The state Latino population is overwhelmingly Democratic.

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Major New Mexico cities are booming and moving left politically, while Republican strongholds are losing their share of the population.

Trump lost New Mexico in 2016, and his net approval rating has plummeted from +17 when he first took office to -13 as of July. The blue wave hit New Mexico hard in 2018.

America First — a prominent pro-Trump group — told Axios it doesn’t have plans at this point to poll in New Mexico.

But it’s an inexpensive bet to take for the RNC, given its relatively small population and centralized media, said Brian Sanderoff, president of Research & Polling Inc.

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