Indeed, the 2018 exit polls suggest that Kavanaugh was a net negative for Democrats across the Senate landscape. One question on some state exit polls asked voters whether a senator’s Kavanaugh nomination vote was important to them. In every state but one (Florida) where the Republican senator voted for Kavanaugh or the Democratic senator voted against him, it was a net negative for the Democratic Senate nominee.

In these seven states (all but one carried by Trump in 2016), those who said a senator’s Kavanaugh vote was important to their choice for Senate were far more likely to vote Republican for Senate. In these states, the Republican Senate candidates won by an average of 18 points among those who said a senator’s Kavanaugh vote was important to them. Among those who said the Kavanaugh vote wasn’t important, the Democratic Senate candidate won by an average of 7 points.

Perhaps what’s most interesting is what the exit polls found in West Virginia, the state where Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin voted for Kavanaugh. Manchin won by 2 points more among those who said his Kavanaugh vote was important to whom they chose for Senate. More stunning, he won by 22 points more among those who said his Kavanaugh vote was any sort of factor (major or minor) in their Senate choice.