Trump’s situation is not exactly analogous, of course. But his fate could be same. In his 2016 campaign, Trump promised that nearly every American would see a tax cut. He also pledged to renegotiate America’s “horrible trade deals” and reinvigorate U.S. manufacturing. When those negotiations failed and a trade war broke out, Trump assured Americans that trade wars were good and easy to win.
That hasn’t exactly worked out. The trade war has been raging for nearly 18 months, the trade deficit continues to increase and manufacturing growth is beginning to slump. Meanwhile, the White House continues to assure Americans that the trade war is only temporary.
The reality looks different: Every bit of good news is soon undermined by a stumble. Tariffs are still rising, and the trade war is taking an increasing toll on the broader economy…
If consumer spending starts to slip, there won’t be much left propping up economic growth. This combination of weak growth, a rising tax burden and broken promises echoes the 1992 election. In addition, Trump is already accumulating primary challengers who will no doubt criticize him for his failure to deliver. When the Democrats pile on, it will be that much harder for the president to make his case for re-election.