— The author’s “time for change” presidential forecasting model has a successful track record of projecting presidential elections. In 2016, it showed Donald Trump as a favorite to win the national popular vote. Though Trump ultimately lost the popular vote while winning the Electoral College, the model presented an early indication that Trump was more than capable of winning the 2016 election.

— A new model uses post-World War II presidential elections featuring incumbents to try to project Trump’s chances in 2020 based on his approval rating and the state of the economy.

— Based on Trump’s current average approval rating in national polls and modest economic growth, the model suggests an extremely close 2020 result in the Electoral College.