The question that arises, though, is why Trump would want to risk a re-election run in the first place. If he retires, he can leave office as an undefeated candidate, claiming in his inimitable way (no matter what the reality) that he had bested Presidents George H.W. Bush and James K. Polk as the greatest one-term president in history. On the other hand, if a Democrat defeats him in 2020, he will leave office a “loser,” rejected by a populace whose votes against him will refute the idea that he made America great again.

Indeed, Trump changes his mind so often that he might be gung-ho for re-election for the next 16 or 17 months, only to have his “gut” (or polls indicating the above scenario is a possibility) tell him late next spring that a re-election campaign isn’t a good idea after all. Anybody with an organized candidacy would then be in position to pick up the pieces and, almost by default, become the nominee.