And/But …. What if Moore doesn’t win on December 12? In truth, the biggest winner in all of this has been Jones, the Democratic nominee. Apart from condemning Moore and seeing his fundraising spike, Jones hasn’t changed much about his campaign, nor does he have to. Moore’s problems are likely to make it easier for Jones to get his supporters to the polls and to expand his base to include Republicans who can’t vote for Moore or accept the possibility that he could serve in the Senate. It is still a tough road, but it gets a bit smoother every day.

So, yes, this race is a hot mess that is likely to get messier between now and December 12. And, the circumstances of a special election and the allegations against Moore combine to create as much uncertainty as we’ve seen in a Senate race since 2000 when Democratic Gov. Mel Carnahan was on the ballot despite his death in a plane crash three weeks before the election. The contest moves to Toss Up, as it is the only appropriate way of describing this uncertainty. Stay tuned.