In a two-way matchup, Clinton leads Trump by 1 point — 43% to 42%.
Unrounded, the numbers are: Trump 45.0%, Clinton 43.4%, Johnson 7.6%, and Stein 2.0% — which means Trump has a lead of 1.6 points. The final IBD/TIPP poll showed an interesting gain in support for Johnson, who climbed from just shy of 4% four days ago.
“As we complete the final days of the tracking poll, we see both Republicans and independents with relatively greater enthusiasm compared to Democrats. The registration advantage Democrats typically have will likely be neutralized by increased enthusiasm by Republicans, which is similar to 2004, when the voters split 37% Democrats and 37% Republican on Election Day. When it comes to candidate support, party-line vote will likely cancel each other,” said Raghavan Mayur, President of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence, which conducts the IBD/TIPP poll. “We also expect independent turnout to be robust and significantly higher than in recent elections, and Trump has an 8-point advantage over Clinton among these voters.”