Trump is ahead of Cruz by an eight-point margin among Indiana likely Republican primary voters: 41-33 percent. That’s at the edge of the poll’s plus or minus four point margin of sampling error. John Kasich comes in third with 16 percent.

Men are the key to Trump’s advantage. He receives 44 percent to Cruz’s 33 percent, while Kasich takes 13 percent.

Among women, Trump ekes out a three-point edge (36-33 percent), while 20 percent back Kasich.