Republicans who think they must discard Romney’s playbook on immigration may discover that the conventional wisdom about the party needing to appease Hispanic voters by changing their tune on immigration may be hurting their prospects as much as helping them.
Republicans do need to expand their appeal beyond their traditional base and especially among the fastest growing demographic group in the country. But the obsession with the Hispanic vote should not deceive conservatives about their prospects with this sector, which remain poor no matter how much they alter their stance on immigration. Nor should it blind them to the fact that they have a far greater chance to improve their chances of victory in 2016 by concentrating more on white working class voters who are appalled by Obama’s lawlessness and the nation’s inability to control its borders. Indeed, the midterm results, though predicated in part on lower turnout by minorities, demonstrates that Democrats stand to lose as much if not more by over-identification with policies that offend most Americans than they have to gain among Hispanics.
Should Jeb Bush run in 2016 he would be a formidable candidate with the ability to raise all the money he needs and the support of many in the party establishment eager to win back the White House. But if he is planning on running against the party base, the path to a Bush 45 presidency may be rockier than he thinks. Employing the tactics that might have won in 2012 may not only lose primaries that will ensure the nomination for a potential rival but also won’t necessarily win any Republican the general election in 2016.