Republicans’ districts average just 10 percent Hispanic voting age population. (By contrast, Democrats’ districts average more than twice that, on average.) There simply aren’t many Hispanic voters for many of these members to appeal to.
Here’s the kicker: even the handful of GOP districts that do have a sizeable Hispanic share (greater than 20 percent) are not even swing districts. They have a CBS average partisan rating of +9 so Republicans don’t usually need the Hispanic voters in them, anyway.
All told, this is only 14 percent of their conference, or 32 seats. There are some – particularly in Texas, California, and perhaps Florida – where a GOP House member might breathe a little easier if they got more of the Hispanic vote, but those are not numerous enough that those members can force the conference.
No one is saying the House can’t pass immigration reform. The question is: Can it pass something with a path to citizenship for those immigrants in the country illegally, which is a requirement of the Senate Democrats and the president?