“He has to win the Philly suburbs and the Lehigh Valley, hope turnout in Philly is low, and do well with Roman Catholics,” said G. Terry Madonna, director of the Center for Politics and Public Affairs at Pennsylvania’s Franklin and Marshall College. “He’s still not doing well enough in the Philly and Pittsburgh suburbs. It’s close enough that you can’t say ‘never.’ But four points with little more than a week out is hard to make up.”

Still, there are signs that Pennsylvania may be swinging back into the swing state category.

A conservative group, Americans for Job Security, has reserved at least $454,150 worth of time on Philadelphia broadcast stations and more than $200,000 worth of time on cable channels in the Philadelphia market, The Philadelphia Inquirer reported Sunday.