The latest assessment is higher than the previous one offered by the DNI in December 2010. At the time, the DNI estimated that the recidivism rate was 25 percent, and included 150 “confirmed” and “suspected” recidivists.

According to the DNI’s December 2010 report, confirmed cases are those in which a “preponderance of information” identifies “a specific former GTMO detainee as directly involved in terrorist or insurgent activities.” In suspected recidivism cases, “[p]lausible but unverified or single-source reporting” indicates “a specific former GTMO detainee is directly involved in terrorist or insurgent activities.” Engaging in anti-U.S. “statements or propaganda does not qualify as terrorist or insurgent activity” in either confirmed or suspected cases.

The U.S. government’s estimate of the number of ex-Guantanamo detainees who have returned to jihad has steadily increased over time.