As I reported last week, the Obama administration and Democrats are promoting the mistaken impression that there’s a strict deadline for raising the debt limit, beyond which the U.S. would default on its debt. This is an exaggeration – there’s no hard and fast deadline, and there are plenty of ways to keep paying our creditors. On the other hand, it’s also true that as long as there’s no plan to balance the budget immediately – which their isn’t – eventually, the debt limit will have to be raised to accommodate increased debt payments. Since Obama knows that Republicans will eventually have to agree to raise the debt limit, he’s unlikely to make major concessions. It’s completely unrealistic to expect that Republicans and Democrats will agree on entitlement reforms anytime soon, nor is it likely that you’ll see two-thirds majorities willing to support a balanced budget amendment. As it is, the current language of the amendment would make the Ryan budget (and even the House conservatives’ budget) unconstitutional, because it does not deliver a balanced budget in five years…

Having already been disappointed on the budget deal, the backlash among conservatives and Tea Party folks is likely to grow more severe the second time around. So that will mean all the pressure would build for the even bigger fight over Ryan’s budget, which will come to a head in September. And there, too, Ryan’s major proposals don’t have much chance of becoming law with Obama in power.