Even if Hillary Clinton had every advantage, her campaign was ultimately sunk by two holes beneath the water line: Her vote for the Iraq war and the perception of her husband’s administration as too conservative on economic issues…

Now look again at Romney. The sort of person who writes a big check to the GOP every cycle may see in Romney a competent CEO for the United States. But to the people who will spend hours in an Iowa caucus room, Romney also has two holes below his water line: TARP and healthcare reform…

If Romney pulls far ahead in his fundraising — if the more conservative Republicans continue to divide between Palin, Gingrich and others — and if he locks up endorsements early, then 2000 is repeating itself and he’s the next Bush.

But if those things do not happen, then Romney faces a grim outlook.