* James Campbell of SUNY Buffalo predicted a gain of 50 to 52 seats for the Republicans, using a model that combines assessments of the number of “seats in peril” by the Cook Political Report with the recent job approval rating of president Barack Obama.
Two more models offered a less pessimistic outlook for the Democrats:
* Alfred Cuzan forecast a Republican gain of 27 to 30 seats based on a model, developed with University of West Florida colleague Charles Bundrick, that relies mostly on measures of economic growth and inflation rather than voter preference polling.
* Michael Lewis Beck of the University of Iowa predicted a Republic gain of just 22 seats. He collaborated with Charles Tien of CUNY Hunter College on a more than 30-year-old “referendum” model based on measurements earlier this year. Their model was the only one to exclude measurements of the current seat division between Democrats and Republicans.