Stop Making Turbulence About Climate Change

But what does the science say? By far the most prominent scientist making this case is Paul Williams, a professor of atmospheric science at Reading University in the UK. All the pieces mentioned above reference his work, which uses mathematical models to predict how climate change will affect clear air turbulence—that is, turbulence you can’t see coming. (This kind of turbulence is caused by wind speed, rather than by clouds.)

In 2017, he co-authored a study that received a lot of attention, because it predicted that a rise in atmospheric CO2 could double, or even triple, incidences of severe clear air turbulence. He also published a much-publicized paper in 2022 arguing that wind speeds over the North Atlantic had increased in the last few decades—the basis for arguing that clear air turbulence will get worse. And in another widely reported paper, published in 2023, Williams predicted a 55 percent increase in clear air turbulence over the North Atlantic. ...

But how solid is his link between clear air turbulence and climate change? Earlier this year, Williams co-authored a letter to the Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, which walked back the findings of his 2022 paper. If we include new data, the letter explained, the increase in wind speeds above the North Atlantic ceases to be “statistically significant.”

As is often the case—whether the subject of a study is vaccines or mental illness—the retraction received far less attention from the press than the original claim.