Fears abound of western exhaustion with the Ukraine war. The historical record suggests the authoritarian world will fracture first: if not over this, then something else. While liberal countries tend to be liberal in much the same way, there are flavours of autocracy, and they pair badly. The ethnic chauvinist hates the universal Marxist. The cleric hates the colonel. Two theocracies of different denominations hate each other. “Axis” was a kind word for a group of second world war belligerents — Germany, Italy and Japan — that rarely viewed each other as racial or civilisational equals.
Even where the ideologies match, raw egoism is the spoiler. A Kremlin grievance with Washington is that Russia is not viewed there as a great power. Its answer: to throw in its lot with a China that has 10 times the population and no obvious delicacy towards junior partners. The Sino-Soviet split began within a decade of the start of the cold war. Who sees this Russian-Chinese tryst lasting much longer?
It is not enough for the US to wait things out, though. It must be an active stoker of divisions. But that will require domestic politics that doesn’t go into meltdown each time the president uses cynical means to secure a liberal end.
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