If you tally all the races rated as Solid Republican, Likely Republican, Lean Republican and Tilt Republican, and split the 18 Toss-up races evenly, Republicans would have 221 seats. That would be a net gain of seven seats. They need a net gain of only four for the majority.
Of course, Republicans wouldn’t turn that down, but it would be a minuscule gain and a massive disappointment for the GOP because the expectations and current projections are high.
Over the past century, the president’s party has lost an average of 30 House seats in midterm elections. Midterm elections are typically performance reviews on the sitting president, and Joe Biden’s job rating is in rough shape. He’s at 39 percent approve and 56 percent disapprove, according to the latest FiveThirtyEight average, with no sign of a rebound.
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