Democrats’ 2024 dilemma

Now let’s return to Planet Earth for a moment. What happens if the Democratic Party — through whatever “leaders” it has or even through a competitive primary — effectively states: “After 60 years of elevating a sitting vice president, we have decided to break precedent now that the vice president is a Black woman.”

If Democrats do not appreciate the possible impact of that repudiation, they have only to look all the way back to… 2016. The marginally lower turnout among Black voters in Philadelphia, Detroit and Milwaukee — attributable to a relative lack of enthusiasm compared to the times when Obama was on the ticket — was a key reason why Hillary Clinton lost those three traditionally blue states, and with them the presidency. Whatever difficulties Democrats will face in 2024, even a modestly disenchanted Black electorate would surely doom the ticket.

To offer the compulsory disclaimer: none of this is set in stone. Biden’s vitality may get a boost if the national mood brightens, or new evidence makes the danger of a Trump second term compelling. If her prospects seem dim enough, Harris could simply choose not to run — though recent polling, likely a measure of name identification, suggests she’s the front-runner for the nomination if Biden bows out.