Could Newsom actually be recalled?

Reason It Will No. 3: Newsom is vulnerable

Finally, any dispassionate analysis of the recall campaign must acknowledge that Gavin Newsom has genuine problems as a candidate. The Emerson College poll has his job approval at 48%, which, while not radioactive, does put him in something of a danger zone. The state is in the midst of an uptick in COVID cases, and some locales are reinstituting mask mandates. This might combine with stories of his children going maskless at summer camp and him hosting a dinner party at a time when Americans were being urged to skip holiday gatherings to create a plausible narrative of elite indifference to the plight of everyday Americans. The state remains vulnerable to blackouts, which was a hardship that hurt Gray Davis.

In other words, this election does look increasingly like a true tossup. Taken together, I think that Newsom is still favored. Neither he nor President Biden is unpopular enough to lose. But against this analysis, the specter of Brexit looms large. The possibility of Gov. Larry Elder seems so wildly implausible that it is difficult to call that as the likely outcome until all evidence points in that direction. For now, let’s just say that this possibility is far more plausible than it seemed a month ago.