This is not to say that Senate Democrats, particularly those running this fall in the heavily white states that Mr. Trump swept in 2016, do not face any risk in a shutdown, especially if it is seen as revolving largely around protecting the young undocumented immigrants known as Dreamers.
Polling done by a Democratic “super PAC,” the Senate Majority PAC, revealed that in Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota and West Virginia, voters would fault Democrats if DACA, the program shielding the young immigrants from deportation, is what prompted the crisis.
Senate Democrats are up for re-election in each of the five states, and if the party does not hold nearly all of the seats, it has no chance to net the two seats necessary to claim the majority.
“They’ve kind of gotten out over their skis,” Senator John Cornyn of Texas, the second-ranking Republican, said of Democrats. “Everybody realizes this is all about immigration.”