Three scenarios for Irma's landfall, none of them good

Scenario 3: Irma makes landfall near Key West, then travels up the West Coast of Florida.

For all the attention placed on Miami, it’s actually the Tampa Bay area that is America’s most vulnerable when it comes to storm surge from a major hurricane. In 2010, with the help of FEMA, the city conducted an extensive worst-case scenario drill with a Category 5 “Hurricane Phoenix” making landfall in the region. The result was an unimaginable tragedy: Half a million homes ruined and a death toll of more than 2,000—greater than Hurricane Katrina.

Tampa’s last direct hit by a Category 3 or higher storm was way back in 1921, when the city had just 50,000 residents. Now, the metro population is more than 3 million. The Hurricane Phoenix simulation found that the unique geography of the bay would concentrate and enhance the storm surge, pushing it to nearly 30 feet in some areas.