To see how far off the voting model really was, Chinni points to two battleground states. “The story in Pennsylvania and Florida is that he really did something remarkable,” Chinni says of Trump’s voter turnout effort. Clinton “got her numbers,” but Trump “remade the electorate,” rendering the Clinton campaign’s strategy toothless. Both Florida and Pennsylvania went Trump’s way Tuesday night.
Initially, Chinni predicted a win for Clinton in Florida on Election Night after looking at data favorable to her in Miami-Date County. And in Hernando County, home to an increasingly large number of Hispanic immigrants, the majority of voters supported the Democratic candidate on the ballot. But Trump was able to sneak out a win in the highly competitive Sunshine State due to “domestic migration,” or large numbers of older white voters moving to the region after retirement.
“It was death by a thousand cuts for her in Florida,” Chinni says.
Join the conversation as a VIP Member