Most of the summer and fall, the poll’s results have been about 6 percentage points more favorable to the Republican than the polling averages. As of Tuesday morning, the poll’s final forecast for the election showed Trump leading by a little over 3 points, 46.8% to 43.6%.
The poll’s findings caused dismay — even outrage — among some readers, especially Democrats, who have denounced it and often criticized The Times for running it.
But just as four years ago the poll was one of the few that did not underestimate President Obama’s support, it seems as though it may have been on its own in not underestimating Trump’s.
Although the final popular vote margin won’t be known for days as late votes are counted in California and other states, it’s clear that the poll was at least as accurate as the majority of surveys that found Clinton ahead by 4 or 5 points.
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