According to this analysis, the US has still not recognised the radicalism of the challenge posed by Russia. The annexation of Crimea and incursions into eastern Ukraine are, it is feared, just the start. At some point, Russia is likely to threaten more of Ukraine, or even the Baltic states. The very fact that America has ruled out military action over Ukraine – which makes the crisis seem less urgent in Washington – has inadvertently raised the stakes. As one senior European diplomat puts it: “Putin knows that he can always escalate to places we won’t go.”
The darkest scenarios, being discussed behind closed doors, include Russian escalation up to and including the use of tactical nuclear weapons. If that were to happen it would, of course, be the biggest international security crisis in decades – far more significant and dangerous than another round in the 25 years of fighting in Iraq.
Most experts still dismiss the nuclear scenarios as far-fetched. It is more common to worry that Mr Putin may launch an all-out conventional war in Ukraine – or encourage uprisings by Russian-speakers in the Baltic states, which are members of Nato. If Russia then intervened in the Baltic states and Nato did not respond, the Kremlin would have achieved the huge prize of demonstrating that the western military alliance is a paper tiger.
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