Scott Walker could be strolling to a massive win in Wisconsin

Weed out the weaker polls, and here’s the picture: Mary Burke had a tiny lead, within the margin of error, in late August. Since the campaign season began in earnest, she has hovered around 45 percent. Walker, meanwhile, has steadily climbed, hitting the crucial 50 percent mark in the latest Marquette University poll of 585 likely voters conducted Sept. 25 through 28.

Marquette’s poll has become the gold standard of Wisconsin polling, outperforming others in the 2010 and 2012 elections. Follow the trend of the Marquette poll and it points to a Walker win. In Marquette’s five polls of registered voters, Burke climbed from 45 percent to 49 percent in late August but she dropped in each of the last two polls and now she’s back down to 45 percent. Walker, meanwhile, has climbed steadily from 46 percent in mid-July to 50 percent in late September.

Here’s another trend to follow: Walker’s ballot box successes keep growing. Walker won the 2010 election by 5.8 points. In the 2012 recall, he won by 6.8 points. In the 2012 state legislative races, Walker’s party took back the state Senate and expanded its majority in the state House of Representatives.