What we see here is the force of an unrelenting power differential. In the realm of international relations, power comes in many forms—in the potency of military hardware and technology and the ability to use it; in population and national wealth; in the intensity of national feeling related to particular conflicts; in geopolitical advantage and imperative; in the willingness to expend national treasure and blood on behalf of national goals. When all of these elements of power are added up and assessed, it becomes clear that Russia has the power to exert influence over Ukraine pretty much as it wants to.
And what is Obama’s reaction to this lesson in foreign-policy realism? Responding to the Putin proposal and Poroshenko’s apparent embrace of it, he expressed himself as if he considers words to be a substitute for power. “No realistic political settlement can be achieved,” he declared, “if effectively Russia says we are going to continue to send tanks and troops and arms and advisers under the guise of separatists, who are not homegrown, and the only possible settlement is if Ukraine cedes its territory or its sovereignty.”
Expressed in the context of what just had happened in Ukraine, these are not the words of a serious man. In point of fact, realistic political settlements can only be achieved when the parties involved understand the fundamental power differentials that exist, as Poroshenko apparently does and Obama apparently doesn’t.
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