John Brennan, career C.I.A. insider and Obama buddy, now heads the C.I.A. Ambassador Susan Rice, still holding down the U.N. fort and waiting to replace Donilon, is probably the strongest liberal of the Obama pack and will feel less constrained to express that side now that Republican attacks have dimmed her hopes of becoming secretary of State. This new lineup means that Mr. Obama likely will move as follows on the key issues: He will push the Israeli-Palestinian negotiating track quite hard, contrary to present Israeli expectations. …
Another significant change within the administration will become apparent soon enough—that the new bosses at State, Defense, and the C.I.A. have far less political clout than their predecessors. Gates, Panetta, Petraeus, and Clinton were political powerhouses in Congress and with the media. Mr. Obama had to pay attention to them, whether he liked it or not—and even give in at times, as with their support of higher U.S. troop levels than he desired in Afghanistan. To be sure, Kerry is respected on the Hill because of his long and careful tenure on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, but Hagel has little backing in either party after his very weak confirmation hearings. Brennan will never approach the movie-star status of Petraeus or the personal congressional links of Panetta.
This is not good. It’s never good when a president doesn’t have to pay close attention to what his advisers say. Given all presidents have to do, it’s just too easy for them to make mistakes. This is especially the case with Mr. Obama and national security policy, where, though his background is not the strongest, he remains quite confident about his judgments.
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