How risky was the Bin Laden raid?

Obama’s authorization of the bin Laden raid was indeed risky: based on incomplete information (such as the lack of definitive proof that the Al Qaeda leader was in the Abbotabad compound) and objections from a split cabinet. Even if the operation had failed or cost American lives, many analysts and commentators—including Clinton—exaggerate the likely political costs to the president.

Throughout recent history, U.S. presidents have authorized limited military operations that were mixed successes or outright failures. In most instances, the president neither suffered a noticeable decline in public support nor faced sustained criticism among elite observers for the decision. Policymakers and pundits generally refrain from criticizing presidents, military commanders, and the armed forces for failed operations…

In the face of emerging or persistent foreign policy challenges, policymakers and pundits want presidents to “do something,” and support such decisiveness—even if, in retrospect, it was ill-advised or unsuccessful. If the special operations raid to kill Osama bin Laden had failed, history shows that Obama would not have faced personal attacks for the effort (unless there was clear evidence of micromanagement). And, of course, it would not be included in the campaign’s highlight reel.