Could Paul win New Hampshire?

But generally, Granite State politicos view Paul as up against a hard ceiling in terms of potential support. “It is difficult for him to break through to the casual political observer,” says Travis Blais, the Windham, N.H., GOP chair. “He might be rising in rankings in the polls, but I don’t know if in New Hampshire, he’d ever bust out and have 45 percent all of a sudden.”

Pointing to Herman Cain’s decision to exit the race and Rick Perry’s and Michele Bachmann’s drops in the polls, Blais attributes Paul’s rise to a narrowing field of conservative contenders. “Ron Paul is standing out more, just because his conservative competition has sort of receded,” Blais says. “But really, he starts talking about Iranian nukes, and your average GOP primary voter starts getting really uncomfortable with the idea of him being president.”

Jamie Burnett, a New Hampshire GOP strategist who thinks Paul is a “stronger candidate” than he was the previous cycle, predicts that he will be in the 10 to 14 percent range in the state when the votes are tallied. “I don’t think there are enough Ron Paul supporters or people that are likely Ron Paul supporters to put him over the top or even get him into second place,” Burnett remarks.