Actually, Obama has a good chance of being reelected

Could Barack Obama be the next Jimmy Carter? There is clearly a chance that he could, if the condition of the U.S. economy deteriorates in 2012 and/or the president’s approval rating slips further into negative territory. But because of the first-term incumbent advantage, the model gives Obama a good chance of winning a second term even with fairly modest economic growth next year and an approval rating in the low- to mid-forties, as the following table shows. The table presents conditional forecasts of the Democratic share of the major party vote in 2012 depending on the growth rate of the economy in the second quarter and Barack Obama’s net approval rating at mid-year.

Based on the president’s average net approval rating in recent national polls, between -10% and -5%, and the estimated growth rate of the U.S. economy during the second quarter of 2011, 2.5%, Obama would be expected to win approximately 52% of the national popular vote, enough to almost certainly guarantee him a majority in the Electoral College. But the president clearly has little margin for error. A double-dip recession and/or a substantial decline in his approval rating could easily put him below 50%.