Could Christie really beat Obama?

Skeptics might note that New Jerseyans tend to vote Democratic in presidential elections, and they’d be right; the state hasn’t sided with the GOP since 1988. But there’s also reason to believe that Republicans—especially ultraconservative Republican primary voters in key states such as Iowa, South Carolina, Florida, and Nevada—could sour on Christie over the course of a nominating contest. Right now, he’s that straight-shooting, truth-telling, union-busting character from the YouTube videos. Over time, however, he would become, thanks to his Republican rivals, the candidate who accepts Roe v. Wade, who supports New Jersey’s strict gun-control laws, who isn’t particularly tough on illegal immigration, who favored the ground zero mosque, and who endorsed a few RINOs in 2010. It isn’t hard to imagine Christie’s 27 percent support shriveling up some, much like Giuliani’s in 2008.

When you factor in the forces conspiring to give Obama an advantage over any Republican challenger—a huge field operation; a seasoned team; the power of the incumbency; an improving economy; and his recent proposal to let states opt out of Obamacare early, which neutralizes one of the GOP’s punchiest attacks—Christie simply doesn’t look like the shoo-in he’s claiming to be.