GOP leaders think they've got a shot at taking the Senate

Many Democratic strategists consider three seats all but lost—in North Dakota and Delaware, where popular Republicans are running for seats left open by Democratic departures, and in Arkansas, where Sen. Blanche Lincoln is trailing significantly in polls. Additionally, an Indiana seat, also open after a Democratic retirement, will be hard to retain.

Four other Democrat seats are tossups: in Pennsylvania, Illinois, Colorado and Nevada. If Republicans capture those eight seats, and win two of the three newly competitive races in Washington, Wisconsin and California, they would retake the Senate.

But Republicans also can’t afford to lose any of their current seats. Democrats are mounting energetic campaigns in Missouri, Ohio, New Hampshire and Kentucky, where Republican senators are retiring. Then there’s Florida, where Gov. Charlie Crist, after leaving the GOP to run as an independent, holds a lead. Senate Democrats believe he will align with them if he wins.